ETF

New QQQQ short term down-trend begins; buying QID

@ 11:14 pm
GMI3/6
GMI-R5/10
T210877%

I am very cautious about the current market.   I believe that we have entered a new QQQQ short term down-trend.   On Friday there were just 11 new highs and four new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks.   In addition, a number of leaders have broken down, including AIPC, QSII, ALGT and NFLX.   When rally leaders falter, it often is an ominous sign of things to come.

With the GMI now at 3, I am becoming more defensive.   I am getting out of QLD and will buy some QID (ultra short QQQQ ETF).   If this down-trend continues, I will make money in QID as the QQQQ declines.   I am concerned that only 20% of the QQQQ (NASDAQ 100) stocks had a MACD close Friday above its signal line.   The perplexing thing about this market is that my longer term weekly QQQQ trend indicator remains positive.   But any long term decline must, by definition, begin with the short term indicators declining. So, this may be a contained decline withing a longer term up-trend.   The key is to be cautious and wait for the market trend to reveal itself.   I remain mainly in cash.

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QQQQ holds support; 43rd day of up-trend; QSII

@ 11:52 pm
GMI4/6
GMI-R7/10
T210883%

I always have to remember not to anticipate a change in trend, but to wait for the actual signal.   On Monday, the QQQQ went to the edge of support and held.   There were 19 new highs and 8 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday.   Only 3 of the new highs were on my IBD100 lists: VPRT, QSII and NPK. I have been writing about QSII for weeks.   It broke out of a three year base in April and is at an all-time high.   I own QSII. I also have a position in QLD, the ultra long QQQQ ETF.   I intend to sell cash-secured puts in my IRA in early June if this up-trend remains intact.

Market up-trend in doubt; mainly in cash

@ 11:09 pm
GMI4/6
GMI-R5/10
T210879%

The QQQQ is resting right on support. A decline on Monday would signal to me the beginning of   a new short term down-trend. There were only 7 new highs and 8 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.   GOLD broke to an all-time high last week and GLD, the gold ETF,   closed back above its 10 week average. This is an ominous sign, with the dollar in a down-trend.   Buying stocks at new highs may not be a good idea now. Friday was the 42nd day of the current QQQQ short term up-trend. The Worden T2108 is now down to 79%.   And most troubling, only 24% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have a MACD above their signal line.

A lot of my cash secured puts expired on Friday.   I am going to wait to take on new positions in June options around June 1.   Better to be defensive now and not give back all of the profits made since the March bounce. I am mainly in cash again.

gmi0515