4th day of $QQQ short term down-trend; IBD sees market correction


My trading account increased on Wednesday due to my call options on QID.   QID is designed to rise   2x as much as the QQQ falls and the call options bet that QID will rise and give me leverage, while minimizing risk.   When one buys options, the most that one can lose is the purchase price of the options. QID rose +3.2% on Wednesday as QQQ declined -1.6%.   Based on short term down-trends since 2006, if the current one last 5 days, it has a 78% chance of continuing for 11 or more days and a 41% chance of lasting 20 or more days.   IBD has now called the market in a correction.

3rd day of $QQQ short term down-trend


This market is teetering on the edge.   I have a few long positions which I have hedged with some call options on QID, just in case the QQQ falls off the cliff. This daily chart of SPY (S&P 500 index ETF) shows a lot of technical weakness.   Note the high volume down days illustrated by the red spikes. SPY is now below its critical 50 day average. Six of the last eight trading days have shown declines.


I counted 63 new highs and 318 new lows among all U.S. stocks on Tuesday.   Only 29% of all stocks rose. And now we are in that wonderful month of October! With Ebola on the horizon, this market could get sick.