GMI: +2; Holding cash

The GMI is +2 and we are in the second day (D-2) of the new QQQQ down-trend. I will wait to commit funds Gmi0707 until after earnings season.  Since 5/15, only 27% of the IBD 100 stocks listed on that date and 34% of my universe of nearly 4,000 stocks have advanced at all.  With odds like these I should only be short or in cash.  My scan of the market yielded 16 rocket stocks and 384 submarines.  Only 2 IBD 100 stocks (PMTI, CME) from the list on 5/15 hit a new high on Friday.  It would be insane to chase growth stocks and anticipate new highs in this market.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI:+2; D-1?; Staying in cash

The GMI fell to +2, with the initiation of a possible new short term down trend in the QQQQ.  Gmi0706 48% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 54% of the S&P 500 and 63% of the Dow 30 stocks. However, there were only 80 new highs and 49 new lows in my universe of nearly 4,000 stocks.  39% of the stocks in my universe and 78% of the IBD 100 stock list on 5/15 are in a bullish stage 2 up trend.  However, 83% of my universe of stocks (93% of the IBD 100 list) closed above their MACD signal line, suggesting an upward trend in most stocks. Only 55% of the IBD 100 stocks from 5/15 advanced on Thursday compared with 58% of my universe of stocks.  Only four of the IBD 100 stocks from the list on 5/15 hit a new high:  EZPW, HOC, HANS and PMTI. Only 31 of the IBD 100 stocks from 5/15 closed higher Thursday than they did on 5/15.  The market has not yet tipped its hand.  I think this is a time for staying in cash.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: 4; GMI-S: 81; U-2; New IBD 100 leaders

The market continued to strengthen during the brief pre-holiday session. The GMI is at +4 and very close to +5 when/if the IBD growth mutual fund index turns positive.    The GMI-S is now 81, reflecting strong short term up-trends in the major indexes.  73% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Monday, along with 72% of the S&P 500 stocks and 83% of the Dow 30 stocks. Gmi0703There were 117 new highs and only 19 new lows in my universe of nearly 4,000 stocks.  13/16 stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher on Monday than they did ten days ago.  Thus, buying stocks hitting new highs has likely to have been profitable again.  35% of stocks are in an up-trend now, up from 9% on June 20. Monday was the second day in the current QQQQ up-trend.

IBD 100 growth stocks are now out-performing other stocks.  Ibd0703    81% of the IBD 100 stocks from the list on 5/15 advanced, compared with 72% of other stocks.  81% are in a bullish stage 2 up-trend and 81% closed above their critical 30 day averages.  34% of these stocks are now above their closing price on 5/15 when they were listed among the IBD 100.  Eight of these stocks hit a new high on Monday:  OII, EZPW, CLDN, XPRSA, HOC, FORM, LIFC, EXPD (I own one of these).  William O’Neil writes that the first stocks to break out of bases to new highs often become the leaders of a new bull move.  I am watching these stocks very closely….

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: +4; U-1; Looking for longs

The GMI rose to +4 on Friday. The IBD growth mutual fund index is now above its 200 day average and closing in on its key 50 day average. Gmi0630 When these mutual fund managers make money in growth stocks, the odds are good that I can. There were 137 new yearly highs in my universe of nearly 4,000 stocks on Friday.  Friday was the first day in the new QQQQ up-trend (U-1).  The IBD 100 stocks are also coming back.  76% closed above their 30 day averages and 90% are above their MACD signal lines. Ibd0630  29% of the stocks on the IBD 100 list from 5/15 are now higher than they closed on that day. Eight of them hit a new high on Friday:  IBCA, CLDN, LVS, XPRSA, GRMN, HOC, OII, EXPD (I own some of these)……

I am slowly wading into the market on the long side.  It remains to be seen whether this rally will hold.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.