GMI: 6; IBD 100 stronger; ProShares rule

The GMI continues at the maximum level of +6. There were 337 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  79% of the 151 stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher on Thursday than they did 10 days earlier.  Gmii1005 Thus, buying stocks at new highs has been profitable.  Only 65% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 60% of the S&P500 stocks and only 43% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Thus, the market was much weaker on Thursday.  Thursday was the 34th day of the QQQQ up-trend and the QQQQ has closed above its 10 week average for eight weeks….

The IBD 100 stocks were stronger than the other stocks today, with 81% of the stocks on the list published last Monday advancing; 16 of them hit a new yearly high.  Over the past few weeks I have owned the QLD, which is leveraged so that it moves about twice as much as the QQQQ.  Since 8/15 when this up-trend began, the QQQQ has advanced 10.08%, while the QLD has advanced 19.92%.  It has been easy to make money just holding the QLD.  There is also an ultra ETF for the DIA.  While the DIA advanced 5.67% since 8/15, DDM advanced 11.69%.  These Ultra ProShares are the best kept secret on Wall Street.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: 6; GMI-S: 88; QLD, IAI, RIMM, GOOG

The GMI remains at 6 and the GMI-S rose to 88, showing that almost all of my short term indicators for four indexes are now positive.  Gmi1004_2An extraordinary 96% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Wednesday, compared with 89% of the S&P500 stocks and 87% of the Dow 30.  87% of the IBD100 stocks from Monday also rose, and 14 hit new highs: BAMM,TWGP,NITE,WRLD,DRIV,AEOS,GYMB,CHL,SEIC,CNS,

ICLR,BEBE,PHLY,and MS).  Seven Nasdaq 100 stocks hit new highs: RIMM, INTU, CSCO, FISV, CDWC, AKAM, and CMCSA.  I am riding high with the QLD, a ProShares  ETF that moves twice as much as the QQQQ, which it mimics.  I am a also holding IAI, an ETF of U.S. brokerage stocks, a group that typically rises in bull markets when trading volume expands.  Why not own a piece of the casinos.  Other stocks that came alive today include RIMM, and finally GOOG, both of which I own.  Wednesday was the 33rd day of the current QQQQ up-trend.  I trade so much better when I follow the market and ignore the media pundits.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: 5; GMI-S 69; IBD 100 stocks underperform again

The GMI is still at 5, but the GMI-S fell to 69.  There was considerable weakness in the QQQQ and IJR short term indicators.  Gmi1002 But there were 114 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  26-43% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P500 and Dow 30 stocks rose on Monday.  Only 27 of the 100 stocks in the new IBD 100 list posted on 10/2 advanced.  So again the IBD 100 stocks underperformed the stocks in the major indexes.  Seven of the IBD 100 stocks did hit a new high on Monday: TNL, GYMB, PHLY, ENR, LIFC, PRFT, and SYX. Monday was the 31st day in the QQQQ up-trend, which is still intact.  Hopefully, a weak Ocotber will set up a nice end of year rally.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: 5; Early October weakness? Nasdaq 100 stocks out-perform IBD 100 stocks

The GMI fell one, to +5 on Friday because there were only 81 new yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Gmi0930 But the GMI-S remains at 100, indicating considerable strength in my short term indicators for four major stock indexes.  Only 30% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, along with 42% of the S&P500 stocks and 53% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Friday was the 30th day in the QQQQ current up-trend and the index has closed above its 10 week average for seven straight weeks.  It has been a good time to be long the QQQQ (or QLD) and tech stocks.  On the other hand, the mutual fund end-of-quarter window dressing is over and the beginning of October may be soft.  Volume should be light on Monday with the Jewish New Year.  It may take Tuesday for this market to reveal the current short term trend.

I created a new watchlist containing the IBD 100 list published on Monday.  Would you believe that the current list includes only 28 stocks that were on the list from 5/16 and 46 of the stocks on the list on 8/14.  In other words, 72% of the IBD 100 stocks on 5/16 were replaced, as were 54% of the stocks on the list on 8/14.  How can IBD continually compare the IBD 100 stock index with the S&P 500 index, when the IBD 100 list changes so much?  The IBD 100 stock list continually drops off the poor performing stocks and is, thus, incredibly unstable.  The valid way to look at IBD 100 stock performance is to look at how the same list of stocks performed over time.  Thus, only 23% of the stocks on the list on 5/16 closed higher on Friday than they closed on 5/16.  And 49% of the stocks on the list on 8/14 closed higher Friday than on 8/14.  In contrast, 44% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed higher on Friday than they did on 5/16 and 87% of them closed higher on Friday than on 8/14.  The Nasdaq 100 stocks greatly out-performed the IBD 100 stocks during these two periods.  It does not appear to be a good idea to run out and buy stocks just because they appear on the IBD 100 list.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.