GMI:5; QQQQ stalled

The GMI is still 5.  My indicators are resting on support and could go either way.  Gmi0130_1 The 10, 30 and 50 day averages for the QQQQ are almost identical, indicating little change over these time periods.  From 11/22 through Tuesday’s close, the QQQQ has declined 2.46%, and in that time only 36% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have risen more than 1%.  We should not bet against the market trend!  When the index breaks from this long plateau, it will probably be a large move.  Tuesday was the 4th day in the current QQQQ down-trend.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.

GMI: 5; GMI-S: 56; Nibbling at QID again

The GMI remains at 5, and the GMI-S rose to 56 because of the strength in the small-cap index ETF (IJR).  Gmi0126_1 There were 115 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.  43% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, along with 49% of the S&P 500 stocks but only 27% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Only 42% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, down from 77% on January 12. Friday was the 2nd day in the QQQQ down-trend.  With the leaders, RIMM and AAPL, looking weak and toppy, this market may be getting ready to roll over. I am beginning to nibble again on the inverse ultra short QQQQ ETF, QID.

Please note my disclaimers at the end of my prior post. 

GMI: 5; GMI-S: 50; Scary market

The GMI declined to 5, and the GMI-S fell 25 to 50.  Only 7% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 18% of the S&P 500 stocks and 10% of the Dow 30 stocks. Gmi0125_2 Only 14% of the IBD 100 stock list from 12/18 rose and only 49% closed above their price when the list was published on 12/18.  Still, there were 253 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  The Daily QQQQ Index turned negative again, but its trend is still questionable.  The 30 day moving average of the QQQQ is flat and the index is gyrating up and down along this line.  The DIA and SPY are also starting to weaken, however. So, this may be the beginning of  a meaningful decline in all of these indexes.  The QQQQ is back below its 10 week average, a key sign of weakness.  We will have to wait a few more days to see if the GMI weakens further.  Now is not the time to make large bold bets in either direction.


GMI: 6; GMI-S: 75; Whipsawed again

The GMI returned to 6 and the GMI-S rose to 75. Gmi0124_2  The QQQQ appears to be starting another up-trend (U-1).  It also looks like GOOG may have another earnings related bounce–it reports on 1/31.  There were 303 new highs on Wednesday in my universe of 4,000 stocks. 80-90% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose.  The 30 day moving average for the QQQQ is flat and when that happens the index often times goes back and forth around its 30 day average.  These whipsaw moves are very frustrating and hard to trade profitably.  As long as the GMI is above 3, it may be better to stay long in the other ultra long index ETF’s; MVV, SSO and DDM.  Their underlying indexes are exhibiting consistent up-trends.

See bottom of my prior post for my disclaimers.