Blog post: The weekly charts of $QQQ, $DIA and $SPY show each having three heavy volume down weeks, suggesting distribution; And the GMI could turn Red by Monday’s close; These greatest traders “sell too soon.”

@ 6:57 pm
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QQQ is approaching its critical 30 week moving average (red solid line), now at 375.59. A weekly close below that level would get me out of everything, even in my university pension, which is already reduced to about 20% invested in  mutual funds. The three huge volume down weeks which I have annotated in all three major indexes suggest to me that institutions are hitting the exits. Penetration of the 30 week average saved me from  the market debacles in 2000, 2008 and 2020. I know I am a more of a chicken now because I need to conserve my funds for retirement. The very wealthy Baron Rothschild is quoted as saying he profited because: “I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.”  Bernard Baruch said: “I made my money by selling too soon.” Jesse Livermore said, “Never buy at the bottom, and always sell too soon.” So I guess I am in good company.

With the Fed taking away the easy money (as they say, the punch bowl from the party)  and after all of the frothy speculation we have witnessed, I am becoming quite concerned, and even scared, about the market in 2022. And I may be selling too soon……

Meanwhile the GMI is now at 2 (of 6). Another day below 3 will turn its signal Red.

 

 

 

Blog post: Day 1 of $QQQ short term down-trend; holding $SQQQ and cash; see BWR patterns in hourly charts for $QQQ, $AAPL, $SPY and GMMA video

@ 6:46 pm
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I usually look at the adapted GMMA daily and weekly charts to see the trend of the market or individual equities. However, for timing entries and exits, the hourly GMMA may prove useful.  Check out the clear hourly blue-white-red (BWR) down-trends in  QQQ

and AAPL and SPY.

My former student, Richard Moglen, has a tutorial for creating GMMA charts in TC2000.

Blog post: $QQQ short term up-trend likely to end Thursday; see $SHY in Stage IV decline and $TLT, indicating rising interest rates

@ 8:48 pm
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I had felt  that when the Fed announced it was tapering and raising rates, it did not make sense for me to be long stocks. Most break-outs have failed. So I have been mainly in cash in my trading accounts. I own some SQQQ. I have also been reducing exposure in my university retirement accounts. I suspect that rising interest rates will eventually kill the bull. It always has in my experience. Never fight the Fed. Look at the short term treasury bonds, SHY. See a trend? Stage IV down-trend.  Remember, lower treasury bond prices=higher interest rates.

Longer bonds are also starting to decline.