Blog Post: Short term indicators are so oversold, dead cat bounce is likely as earnings are released; 20 yr treasuries in daily BWR down-trend=higher interest rates, see chart

@ 8:14 pm
GMI1/6
GMI-21/9
T210820%

With bonds in a steep decline, the market will have competition from higher interest rates. This chart shows a daily RWB down-trend. With the GMI=1, I am mainly in cash in my trading accounts. There were only 45 US new highs and 218 lows on Friday. This is not a market for me to buy stocks at highs. But earnings season may cause a short term bounce up with so many indicators oversold. I won’t trust a rise until my indicators strengthen. Too many people I meet have gains from the past two years and remain eternally bullish–until the next large decline scares them out, at the bottom. If T2108, now 20%,  should go below 10% I may become interested in nibbling on an S&P500 index ETF, not in individual stocks, many of which might not recover.

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Blog Post: Day 6 of $QQQ short term down-trend; 144 US stocks at new lows and 42 at highs; $QQQ,$SPY,$DIA and $IWM now below 10 week averages; Moving to $SQQQ, $TBIL and cash in trading accounts; See 2 charts

@ 11:03 pm
GMI1/6
GMI-22/9
T210823%

Too many of my short term indicators have weakened for me to buy stocks near ATHs. When more stocks are reaching 52 week lows than highs it is a signal of weakness. I never try to predict the market. I only look at what Mr. Market is telling me now. The market remains above its rising 30 week average (red line). If it should close below that, my GMI will turn to 0 and I will start to transfer university retirement accounts to cash. Meanwhile, given that the $QQQ short term down-trend has lasted 6 days, I will slowly wade into SQQQ, the inverse ETF that rises 3x as much as QQQ declines. It also falls 3x as much as QQQ advances, so I always have one foot out the door. Below is the weekly chart of QQQ. QQQ has not been able to rebound much from its high volume decline 3 weeks ago, a sign of weakness. The 4 wk avg (red dotted) is close to declining below the 10 week average ( blue), and is another sign of weakness.

But the longer term trends remain up. Note that  the weekly adapted GMMA chart shows that QQQ is  still in  a RWB up-trend.
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Blog Post: Day 3 of $QQQ short term down-trend, but will this bounce hold? $QQQ retakes 10 week average but still more US stocks at new lows than highs and GMI=2

@ 7:29 pm
GMI2/6
GMI-22/9
T210825%

I will not post again until next Tuesday. I sold my SQQQ today after the strong showing of QQQ.  I have noted that about 40% of the new QQQ short term down-trends end within 5 days. Let’s see what happens early next week.

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