Stock Market Technical Indicators & Analysis
AMPH hit an ATH and bounced up off of its 4 week average (red dotted line) which is climbing above the 10 and 30 week averages. Note its GLB in February. AMPH has an RS=99 and Composite=95 and EPS=97. If I bought, I would sell if it closes the week below its 4 wk avg=36.49. A strong advancing stock will hold its 4 wk average for many weeks. AMPH has done so for 7 weeks already.
The SPY is just hanging on to its 30 week average but the 4 wk has crossed above the 10 wk. This week should reveal its likely trend. Remember, we are approaching “Sell in May” time.
But the 10/30 weekly chart of the SPY shows a possible change in trend (towards down).
I looked at the 10/30 weekly charts for 36 ETFs representing foreign markets. Only 9 of them had their 10 week avg >30week avg for at least 2 weeks. They are: Thailand (THD), Peru (EPU), Qatar (QAT), United Kingdom (EWU), Mexico (EWW), Canada (EWC), Brazil (EWZ), South Africa (EZA) and Chile (ECH). Many countries look like China (GXC). What is this telling us about the health of the world economies?
The GMI is at 5 (of 6). The only way the GMI will turn 6 is if the QQQ retakes its 30 week average (solid red line). Stay tuned.
Failure to hold above a declining 30 week average is a very ominous sign of weakness. Too many break-outs are failing. End of quarter mutual fund window dressing is over. Time to be defensive on the sidelines and wait for the signal. The market should reveal its major trend in a week or so.
