Blog Post: Day 11 of $QQQ short term down-trend; T2108, at 30%, is far above bottom territory, see monthly chart

@ 11:00 pm
GMI0/6
GMI-22/9
T210830%

Worden’s T2108 indicator is the percentage of NYSE stocks that have closed above their simple 40 day moving averages. T2108 is available in TC2000 and I list its value every time I post. I consider T2108 to be a pendulum of the market. I tell my students when T2108 falls to single digits they should back up the truck and buy a little SPY, not individual stocks. The market, SPY,  will come back, but not all stocks will recover. Then they should buy more  SPY only as it moves higher.

I am always afraid to take my own advice because when T2108 falls that low the financial news is horrible and everyone is scared. Now that I am in cash, I hope to take a deep breath, hold my nose and buy some SPY the next time it declines below 10. As this monthly chart shows, T2108 at 30% is far above the level it reaches when  major declines have ended.  So watch out below….

 

 

 

Blog Post: GMI=0; Major indexes in Weinstein Stage 4 down-trends; Cash is the best place to be–take the oath

@ 8:58 pm
GMI0/6
GMI-22/9
T210839%

Too many times I have seen the market plunge after a Stage 4 decline became evident. It is therefore possible that we have only seen the beginning of a major decline. No one knows when a decline will end. So for me it makes sense to be in cash and to wait for a clear Stage 2 up-trend to develop. I have been trading/investing since 1964 and have seen many major declines. I wrote last November that I was exiting the markets. There is plenty of time to make $$$ when my GMI (see table) turns Green again…..

Here is the weekly chart of QQQ. Note the failed attempt to retake the 30 week average (solid red line). Note the prior Stage 2 up-trend (closes above a rising 30 week average) when it was easy to make money trading on the long side. I tell my students if they are only long stocks and/or the market index ETFs when they are in Stage 2 up-trends they should do fine. The Worden T2108 indicator is at 39% (see table). Bottoms of declines typically occur when T2108 reaches single digits. We are a long way from that. Don’t fight the tide.