Blog Post: This week may tell us whether the recent bounce was more than a bear market rally; $BJ is an example of a failed GLB, see chart

GMI5/6
GMI-22/9
T210872%

The weekly chart of QQQ shows that it retraced to its 30 week average (red solid line) last week. If it holds the 4 week average (red dotted line) and the 30 week average this week I think the new up-trend is intact. If it closes this week below the 30 week and the 4 week, we are likely in store for much more weakness.

I tweeted earlier Sunday, @wishingwealth,  about the need for more examples of failed break-outs to help people learn how to recognize when a break-out fails. Many break-outs fail, especially in a declining market. BJ had a failed green line break-out on Friday. It failed to close above its green line (74.09) on Thursday and closed below it on Friday. When a stock closes back below its green line I must sell out. If a set-up is violated one must always sell. If BJ were to close back above its green line, it might be a buy.

The GMI remains Green and is at 5 (of 6). Note however how few (2) of the GMI2 components are positive. The GMI2 is sensitive to very short term moves. Friday was a weak day.

Blog Post: Day 23 of $QQQ short term up-trend; Only 70 new US highs and 62 new lows; This weekly chart shows $SPY is at a critical point, another leg down on tap?

GMI5/6
GMI-26/9
T210877%

SPY is above its 30 week average (solid red line) but has hit a wall at its descending down-trend line. It is also floating above its 4 week average (red dotted line), a sign of being extended. If SPY should close back below its 30 week average it could signal another vicious leg down. Look what happened last April. Stay tuned and remain on defense…..