GMI: 6; GMI-S: 88; Focused on QQQQ and missed moves in SPY and DIA; IBD 100 lists doing well; RATE- cup with handle?

The GMI is back to 6, as the QQQQ turned positive.  64% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Friday, along with Gmi0202_1 59% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Friday was day one (U-1) of the new QQQQ short term up-trend.  Note, however, that the 10, 30 and 50 day averages of the QQQQ are flat and fairly similar,  indicating little movement in this index over the past 50 days. The QQQQ has closed back above its 10 week average, a positive sign.  However, by focusing solely on the QQQQ, I ignored the terrific performance of the SPY and DIA.  The SPY and DIA have closed above their 10 week averages for 24 consecutive weeks!  During this clear up-trend the Proshares ultra ETF’s have zoomed:  Spy, +11% (SSO, +22%) and DIA, +11.5% (DDM, +23%).  While I made money holding the Ultra QQQQ ETF, QLD, during much of this same period, I exited it in late December when the QQQQ closed below its 10 week average.  The QQQQ has been relatively flat since late November.  So, during most of this entire period the GMI held at 5 or above, and I should have been trading the SPY or DIA ultra ETF’s, which never weakened……….

I have added today’s new IBD 100 list to my performance table. Clearly, the IBD 100 lists have been doing better lately.  The majority of the stocks in all but one of the seven lists rose on Friday.  With the exception of the list published on 5/16, the majority of all stocks in these lists closed Friday above where they closed when their respective list was published. Ibdperf0202 About two thirds or more of the stocks on each list closed above their average price of the past 30 days.  The new list, of course, has done best, with 35 new highs on Friday and 93% of its stocks above their 30 day averages.  This outperformance of the newest list is expected, because IBD adds only the strongest stocks to each new list.  Keep in mind, though, that each new list also deletes underperforming stocks and that the overall performance of each list should therefore outperform the general market indexes, which only rarely delete underperforming stocks. Thus, only 6 of the Nasdaq 100 index stocks hit new highs on Friday and only 62% closed above their 30 day averages.  For now, it looks like the IBD 100 type of fast growing companies is doing well….

I noticed this weekend that RATE may be setting up a cup with handle pattern.  Ratecup A break out above the handle at around 42 on above average volume might signal the beginning of a new move.  I have learned some painful lessons, however, not to anticipate break-outs.  I can always set an alert to notify me if the stock closes above 41.91 so that I can verify the necessary increased volume. ATHR, the other cup with handle possibility I wrote about, is still setting up.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my prior post.

GMI: 5; GMI-S: 88; Split market

This is a very split market with the Nasdaq 100 stocks being laggards.  Gmi0201 The GMI is still 5 and there were 461 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  But only 49% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, compared with 73-74% of the S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks. GOOG has now fallen, along with RIMM and AAPL.   When the strongest stocks weaken, the rest of the market usually cannot keep rising.  But all of my short term indicators for SPY, DIA and IJR are positive.  Will the QQQQ follow or lead these other ETF’s?

Blogdisclaimer_7

GMI: 5; Turn coming?

The GMI stayed at 5 today, but the GMI-S rose to 75.  Gmi0131_1 75-77% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Wednesday.  Wednesday was the 5th day in the current QQQQ down-trend.  Another up day in the QQQQ will turn that daily indicator positive. 56% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are now above their 30 day averages.  However, if GOOG cannot rise after the good earnings it released Wednesday afternoon, it will be another sign of weakness in the leaders.  RIMM and AAPL have already rolled over.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of my previous post.