GMI: 6; Why this market is rising….

The GMI remains at the maximum level of 6.  Gmi0601 There were 488 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday, the most since December 5.  This is a very strong up-trend with many stocks moving up.  Friday was the 42nd day in the current QQQQ up-trend.  Why is the market so strong?  I searched for any technical indicator that might provide a clue to the rise.  And then I found it in an indicator I haven’t looked at for quite a while.

Take a look at this chart of the short term interest rate indicator.  Note that the 10 week moving average (dotted blue line) has curved down and is now below the 30 week average (solid red line), which appears to have peaked.  Shortratespeaked_2The last time that the 10 week was below the 30 week was in March, 2004, before the Fed started to raise rates.  It now looks like the next move by the Fed will be to lower rates.  It may already have begun.  Could that be why this market is rising?

See my caveats at the bottom of my prior post.

GMI: 6; Leaders strong; FTO

The QQQQ is in the 41st day of its up-trend and the leaders are strong.  There were 455 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Gmi0531 The QQQQ and SPY have closed above their 10 week averages for ten straight weeks.  Many  stocks are strong and have broken out.  Still, gloom and skepticism are abundant and many pundits do not embrace the current up-trend.  This market is climbing the proverbial "wall of worry."  Leaders like RIMM, AAPL and GOOG are rising.  Many stocks are breaking out, especially energy stocks.  One stock I noticed the other day is FTO, which rose ten fold between 2004-2006 and then consolidated for 10 months. FTO recently broke out to an all-time new high. Fto  (See monthly chart below.) I bought the stock and have written covered calls on it which are due a week from Friday.  I am currently 100% long on stocks in my IRA.  I have learned yet again the value of flying on instrument and not by my emotions.  Each time the market appeared to be weakening, it has held the support levels I monitor.

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