New QQQ short term up-trend; Worden 2012 Conference Tour; 23 stocks at new highs

@ 7:00 am
GMI6/6
GMI-24/9
T210860%

As you know, I rely heavily on the Worden software, TC2000, for tracking the market and computing my GMI stats. The Worden 2012 Conference Tour is beginning in January and will visit the DC area on April 13 and 14.   I am pleased to present 4 lectures during the two day conference.   I hope to meet many of my blog readers there.   My presentations will utilize some of the material I present to my university honors class. If you can’t attend, you might want to order the conference videos from them.

The bounce back rally is continuing and the QQQ short term trend has turned up. As you know, I prefer to wait for the new trend to persist for 5 days before I trust it. The DIA and SPY are becoming somewhat overbought.   The Tech stocks, as measured by the QQQ ETF, are not overbought yet.   So the techs may have further to go.   Nevertheless, I am writing calls on some long positions and moving up my sell stops.

MY TC2000 scan found 23 stocks with good fundamentals that hit new highs on Tuesday.   They are: WPC,ALXN,BWLD,CATM,ISRG,WYN,CPRT,MMP,EAT,VZ,MGRC,PETM,FEIC,SBUX,

SMP,SE,ODFL,PM,ARG,FAST,ORLY,SCSS,GR. This is a good list of stocks to research.

 

GMI posts bullish signal; QQQ still in short term bounce; Gold begins Stage 4 decline?

@ 9:27 am
GMI5/6
GMI-23/9
T210858%

With the GMI at 5 and above 4 for two consecutive days, this indicator is flashing a bullish signal.   I will be more comfortable if the QQQ holds on Tuesday and its short term trend turns up too.   The Worden T2108 indicator is in neutral territory, at 58%.   68% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed with their MACD above its signal line, a sign of short term strength.   Only 25% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have an over-bought stochastic, compared with 53% of the Dow 30 stocks.   This difference reflects that the large cap stocks are currently out-performing the tech stocks.   As I wrote previously, after a weak market people tend to feel more comfortable buying the big blue chip stocks than the more speculative growth stocks reflected in the QQQ. The smaller growth stocks take off later, once people have profits. Both the QQQ and SPY are back above their respective 10 week averages, a sign of strength.

The QQQ reached a short term oversold level on December 19, and has bounced off of that level the past 4 days.   The QQQ is getting close to an overbought level, as measured by stochastics and Bollinger Band indicators I use.   I am therefore planning to move my stops up and/or write calls on my few long positions as soon as these indicators become over-bought. Over the past year, the QQQ has cycled between over-sold and over-bought. I am therefore not adding to any long positions right now.   I am still looking to short gold once the consolidation from the recent sharp drop is over.   This could take weeks.   Check out this weekly chart which shows GLD now firmly below its 30 week average (red line) and entering a major Stage 4 decline. Click on weekly chart to enlarge.