GMI: 6; IBD 100 performance; AAPL and GOOG

The GMI held at 6 even though few stocks rose on Friday.   There were 203 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and only 13 new lows.   38% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Friday, along with 46% of the S&P 500 stocks and 66% of the Dow 30 stocks.   Gmi1020_1 The QQQQ has now closed above its 10 week average for 10 weeks and Friday was the 45th day in the current QQQQ up-trend.   Since August 16, the QQQQ has risen 8.9%, and 73% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have advanced;   41% advanced more than 10% and 25% advanced more than 15%.   During this same period, the ProShares ETF that attempts to double the performance of the QQQQ (QLD) advanced 16.9%, while the similar “ULTRA” ETF for the S&P 500 index ( SSO) rose 10.9% and the ETF for the Dow 30 index rose 11.7%.   Hence, by simply buying the QLD when the GMI signaled a rise and holding on during this rise, one could have received a 17% return–a return that beat 84% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks.   By buying the Ultra QQQQ ETF, I can beat 84% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks.   Why try to find the few individual stocks that outperform the QQQQ, when I can just ride the Ultra QQQQ ETF?   I can’t wait until the the GMI signals a down-trend so that I can switch to the Ultra short QQQQ ETF   (QID) and ride the QQQQ back down.

Meanwhile, the IBD 100 stocks have not done very well the past few months.   Ibdperf1020 On Friday, 38% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, compared with 23-32% of four recent IBD 100 lists.   Only 43% of the stocks on the list from 10/16 closed higher than they closed on the day the list was published.   4% or fewer of the stocks on each list hit a new high on Friday, somewhat better than the Nasdaq 100 stocks (2).   74-82% closed above their average price of the past 30 days.   The four stocks on the list from 10/16 that hit a new high were :   HCSG, KNOT, AMX and TV.   The list from 10/2 included:   HCSG, KNOT, AMX   and CHL. The list from 8/14 added OKE. The fact that AMX was on all four lists suggests that this stock has had staying power dating back at least to 5/16.

I have been writing about GOOG and AAPL for sometime and have made some money trading them.   But I still make mistakes.   Last week with only days before expiration I wrote covered calls on AAPL and GOOG because the call options were providing incredibly high time premiums for just a few days, through Friday.   I wrote covered calls because I was influenced by some media pundits who said the market had to weaken, and by writing calls I limited my gains on these two stocks.    How many times do I need to remember to heed Darvas’ advice to eliminate all outside opinions from my trading.   When I just follow the market myself I do much better.   The opinions of others tend to destroy my judgment……………..

GMI: 0; GMI-S: 6; GMI-L: 25; Gone fishing

While the GMI has been zero for some time, note that the GMI-L is now 25 and the GMI-S is 6.  This means that all but one of the 16 short term indicators for the four major indexes are negative; and now the long term indexes are weakening.  Gi0720 12% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday along with 21% of the S&P 500 stocks and 27% of the Dow 30 stocks.  While 18% of my universe of 4,000 stocks rose, only 6% of the IBD 100 stocks from 5/15 rose.  The market is slaughtering tech and growth stocks.  Only 50% of the IBD 100 stocks from 5/15 are in a bullish stage 2 up-trend, the lowest percentage since I began tracking this indicator on June 9 (range: 50-81%).  Only 32% of these IBD 100 stocks from 5/15 closed above their 30 day averages.  The QQQQ is in its eleventh day (D-11) of the current short term down-trend and has closed below its 10 week average for 10 straight weeks.

So what to do?  I am going on vacation, but will try to update the GMI sometime between now and early August when I return.  Every successful trading guru I respect has written that there are times to be out of the market.  The eloquent Jesse Livermore said there were times to go short, go long, and to go fishing.  Nicolas Darvas said only to trade when one’s conditions for trading are perfectly met by the market.  The "M" in CAN SLIM says to stay out of growth stocks when the general market is declining.  There is no hurry or urgency to trade. With the market acting so schizoid, I am going fishing.  The saying, "in May go away," has never been more appropriate.  Check out Thursday’s Investor Education myth buster article in IBD for an analysis of why it makes sense to be out of the market during declines.  Perhaps the market will give us a better opening in the fall.  Conservation of capital keeps one in the game…….

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI:+6; QQQQ turns up; Biotechs to turn?

The GMI finally went to the maximum of +6, with the Daily QQQQ indicator turning positive.  Gmi0302 There were 238 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  This represents 6% of all stocks in my universe.  Compare this percent to the 25% of stocks that have doubled in the past year that hit a new 52 week high.  What more proof do we need than this to show that the strongest stocks tend to get stronger ? Nicolas Darvas (see his books to the right) was very wise to have used doubling in the past year as one criterion for  buying a stock.  All of my other indicators changed slightly yesterday.  41% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 36% of the S&P 500 stocks and 40% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Still, Thursday was the first day of the new short term up trend in the QQQQ.  With all of the bearish sentiment around for tech stocks, it would be just like the QQQQ to start a major up trend.  Keep an eye on the biotechs, which may be forming a bottom.  The MACD for the biotech ETF, BBH, has recently had a bullish crossover.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.