Nicolas Darvas trading techniques require markets at all-time peaks

The basic principles of my method are in fact quite simple:

Firstly, except in exceptional cases I only buy the stock of companies in new or developing industries, i.e., companies whose growth and earnings prospects look highly promising.   I never buy stocks in established industries, in companies with huge capitalizations, or in companies which are already so big that the prospect of substantial growth is highly unlikely.

Secondly, having found such lively stocks, I certainly do not buy them straightaway.   I first check the overall market trend to ascertain whether stocks in general are in an uptrend.   I then check whether the stock belongs to a strong industry group, i.e., a group that is performing well in the market relative to other groups. Only when I have satisfied myself on these two points do I look in more detail at the stock that interests me.

Why all these precautions?   Because I like to be sure that the odds are in my favor.   If the market is in a downtrend, and the industry group is performing weakly I know that the cards are stacked against me and that my chances of making big profits are poorer than if the market and the industry are strong.   You cannot be too careful in the stock market.

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My Trading Strategy, Part II

IT TAKES A ROCKET SCIENTIST!

(Copyright ©   2005, by Eric D. Wish.   All rights reserved.)

“There is no magic about buy signals. They are only devices by which we call our attention to stocks that have already begun to attract the attention of others.”

Burton Crane, The Sophisticated Investor, 1964, p. 49

Can you believe this?   The day after I tell you how much I admire Jim Rogers, he goes on television and tells everyone that   he   buys stocks that are near their lows and avoids those hitting new highs.   I guess I better set the record straight by telling you where I stand on this issue.   Assume you are looking over a field of rockets, all on their launching pads.   Your job is to determine which rocket will take you to the moon.    There are a number of ways to approach this problem.   One person might study all they could about the model of the rocket and its history.   They might find what similar rockets have done in the past and that a rocket with a particular size and payload should be able to go quite far.   This strategy is equivalent to the approach taken by the fundamental analyst.   He (or she) knows the company’s prior earnings and projections for the future.   He can tell you all the reasons why a particular company’s stock should do well–earnings, cash flow, sales, industry trends etc.   He can estimate the stocks “true” value.    

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About the General Market Index (GMI)

Index This market just makes you want to scream, doesn’t it?   Now you know why I stay out of sick markets and sold my MHS days ago.   Here is a stock that broke to a new all-time high at the end of March and held up for a few weeks.   It seemed like a good “defensive” stock, being in the management of prescription drug programs.   So what happened today?   It announces quarterly earnings today up 27% but apparently did not boost its profit outlook for the rest of the year.    So what does it do? It declines today 9.12%! This is the type of action one gets in a market that is in a downtrend with few stocks successfully holding new high ground.

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