20th day of QQQ short term up-trend; How daily MACD histogram predicted decline

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IBD now calls the “Uptrend under pressure.’ Meanwhile, I had already closed out my position in TQQQ earlier in the week.   Why?   I posted last Sunday night that I saw technical weakening in the QQQ, based on its diminishing stochastics and MACD histogram.   Both indicators have continued to weaken.   I want to show you, how the MACD histogram can illustrate something not seen in the price itself.   This daily chart of the QQQ shows the MACD histogram below it.   Note that in a 9 day period before Thursday’s decline,   it looks to the naked eye like the price of QQQ remained level.   At the same time, the MACD histogram was showing marked weakening!   (The histogram plots the difference between the MACD and its signal line, which are both plotted on the histogram chart. When the histogram turns red, it means the MACD has fallen below its signal line.) The histogram actually turned red on Wednesday.

While my indicators show the QQQ remains in   short and longer term up-trends, I did not want to own a 3X leveraged bullish QQQ ETF while the MACD histogram (and stochastics, not shown) was falling. Many suggest the MACD is a lagging indicator–not to me, or Judy, who taught me this!   I will consider going back   into TQQQ again when the histogram starts rising. Both the QQQ MACD histogram and stochastics were recently added to the indicators I count and post daily in the GMI-2 figure to the right.

MACDhist

 

 

GMI back to 6; 4 green line break-out stocks from last week and 2 prior winners–FLT and TSLA

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The GMI is back to 6 (of 6). I have to “fly by instrument” and stay invested long in spite of my emotions from the news.   My university pension has remained 100% invested in mutual funds.   My trading accounts are now holding long positions. (Long means I am expecting the equity to rise.)

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I did a lot of work the past few days looking for green line break-outs.Check out my TC2000 webinar   from December 2012, link posted to the right of my blog page. for an explanation of my green line strategy.   I like to buy green line break-outs and to place my sell stop somewhere below the green line. A lot of stocks break above the green line and then re-test it before resuming their advance.   Because one never knows if the advance will resume, I sell when the stock closes below the green line and may buy back if it rises above it again.   In an IRA, I am not concerned with wash sales tax rules.   Here are a few weekly charts of stocks that broke above their green line tops last week or the prior week and had   recent earnings up at least 100%. These stocks (TPLM, URI, EEFT, GENT) are well worth researching.

TPLMweeklygreenlineURIweeklygreenlineEEFTweeklygreenlineGENTweeklygreenline

FB has continued to rise after its green line break-out. (I own it.) Ignore the annotations from my class.

FBweekly10042013

Lest you think that buying at a green line break-out is too late, feast your eyes on FLT.   You may also want to see what TSLA has done since breaking its green line last April around $40. Of course not all green line break-outs perform this way.   The challenge is to ride those that do and quickly abandon those that do not.

FLT10042013And TSLA:

TSLA10042013

Click on charts to enlarge.

How to find a TSLA like explosive stock before its huge advance; more green line break-outs

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I know all of us would like to identify a break-out stock like TSLA before it doubles.   Did TSLA give itself away before its break-out?   I believe the methods I have been demonstrating show how it would be   possible to detect such an explosive move in advance. So, let’s do it.

First, I have been saying that to find a winner, one must look for stocks hitting new highs.   So, we run a scan of stocks hitting new highs on the evening of   April 1, 2013 and TSLA comes up. I immediately look at a monthly chart and find that TSLA is a green line break-out to an all-time high.   I see that On April 1, 2013 TSLA closed at 43.93, well above its former peak price of 39.95 reached a year earlier in March, 2012.   This current monthly chart shows where the green line might have been drawn on or before April 1, at its prior 2012 peak .

TSLAmonthly

So the night of April 1, with TSLA at an all-time high, I would have immediately looked at its weekly chart.  (This chart is as of the end of the week TSLA broke out.)

TSLAbreakoutweekly

Note the volume spike at the bottom.   The stock broke to an all-time high on the highest weekly volume ever. This might also be a cup and handle break-out. Now here is the daily chart at the close of April 1.

TSLAdailybreakout

Note the gap above the green line top on huge daily volume.   Not all green line break-outs work out. Sometimes they fail and/or retest the green line and then take off.   If we had researched TSLA we may have decided it was worth at least a small purchase, given it is a recent IPO   in a new growth industry–battery powered cars.   One might buy a little and see if the stock continued its advance or wait for it to re-test the break-out.

TSLAdailyIt turns out that TSLA did re-test its break-put, giving one an opportunity to buy it at the successful re-test.   The rest is history.

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With TSLA now at 91.50, don’t say that the stock did not give us trade-able signs of this advance before it took off. We just must know what signs to look for and to heed them.

Given that we are in a strong up-trending market, we can still look for new explosive stocks like TSLA.   We can be alerted to them by scanning the nightly new high list.   Then we must check to see if it is a green line break-out to an all-time high on above average volume.   Then we can research it and decide whether it is in a growth industry that may excite people.   Is it an IPO? The fact that TSLA had come public in the recent past was a plus because most funds would probably not already own it. Finally, we can buy it or watch for a re-test of the break-out and determine a buy point with minimal risk.   (If the stock closes back below the green line we can sell with a small loss.)

I try to do some of the work for you by reviewing the new high list and posting green line break-outs for you to research and track.   One such recent break-out is LEA (weekly chart below), in the strong auto-parts sector. Other recent green line break-outs have occurred in:   SAIA, EQT, SNDK, MOH, HCI, PCH, LOPE, TREX, MTN, USNA, DRQ, TSO, TRIP and WHR.   They are worth checking out.   I own a few of these. Most will not explode up like TSLA, but many may go on long advances like FLT below. Why are so many people averse to buying stocks that break from a multi-month base (green line top) to a new all-time high? In the stock market I do not want to buy “bargains.”

LEAgreenline

 

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Meanwhile the GMI remains at 6 (of 6) and the markets   remain in an up-trend.

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