General Market Index (GMI) table

Blog Post: The decline in $SPY is small compared with those in 2000 and 2008, and the monthly stochastic is nowhere as oversold as occurred at major bottoms, see monthly chart

@ 8:28 pm
GMI0/6
GMI-23/9
T210822%

This is a monthly chart with a 25.4 and 25.4.4  stochastic. The 25.4 stochastic is currently at 39.04, but the 2003 and 2009 bottoms occurred  with readings below 20.  This down-trend actually appears minor compared with those declines and  may have a ways to go. Why try to guess a bottom or catch a falling knife when one can rest calmly on the sidelines? This chart shows that there are years to ride the new bull after a new up-trend has been established.

The GMi is back to 0 (of 6) and on a RED signal.

Blog Post: 25 new US highs and 588 new lows on Friday, down from 888 on Thursday; $SPY heading down to trend channel line I drew months ago? See weekly chart

@ 11:05 pm
GMI1/6
GMI-22/9
T210813%

I drew this lower trend channel line (thank you Vas!) months ago and suggested that SPY may decline to hit it again, right at the last green line break-out. This is a weekly chart. Note the blue arrow in the volume section. That high volume decline was one of the factors that got me out of the market at the end of last year. Another factor was the growing number of new daily lows occurring even as the index was still climbing.

 

The GMI remains on a Red signal and I am in cash.

Blog Post: Market stats are similar to what occurred at June low: 1,374 new yearly US lows vs. 1,394 at June low, 81 Nasdaq 100 stocks with oversold daily 10.4 stochastics vs 85; T2108 = 12 now vs 11; P/C ratio= 1.08 vs. 1.17, but reached a more extreme 1.27 days before June bottom, see charts for trend

@ 4:53 pm
GMI0/6
GMI-22/9
T210812%

Friday’s indicators are very close to what occurred last June 16 when the QQQ bottomed and began a large rally. Will we get another tradable rally or will QQQ decline to hit that lower trend channel line or something else? No one knows but stocks often bounce during earnings season. These charts reveal the trend. First the daily…

This weekly 10:30 chart provides another picture of the trend. QQQ is leading the two averages lower.

Finally, my favorite chart is  a weekly chart displaying the 4,10, and 30 week averages. QQQ kissed the 4 wk avg. last week and continued down. Note how declines tend to ride the declining 4wk average (red dotted) down. When a real market turn comes, QQQ will close above the 4wk then the 10 wk and then the 30 wk averages which will then begin to turn up. Until that happens, the down-trend is not over.  Trend followers react after the desired signals appear, not before.

When the GMI=0, it is probably best to go short or go fishing….