General Market Index (GMI) table

Blog Post: Day 11 of $QQQ short term up-trend; On Friday, 69 new US highs and 131 lows; the GMI remains Green but I am on defense until the debt stalemate is settled

@ 10:50 pm
GMI5/6
GMI-26/9
T210840%

While my indicators suggest that the bottom is in for QQQ, I remain mainly in GLD until the US  gets through the debt limit battle. The market fell deeply during the debt battle in 2011 but gold held up until the limit was raised. But there are few new highs each day and more yearly lows than highs. Until the current debt limit issue is resolved, I remain very defensive, but  will  jump back in on the long side once an agreement is reached. The market indexes have held up under the assumption that all will end well. But the road could still turn very rocky quickly until the resolution. So I wait mainly on the sidelines. The GMI remains strong for now, at 5, of 6.

Blog Post: Day 6 of $QQQ short term up-trend; 96 US new highs and 39 lows Friday; This week will show whether debt negotiations squabbles will create havoc with the markets, hide in precious metals? See daily charts of $GLD and $SLV

@ 9:44 pm
GMI5/6
GMI-25/9
T210846%

The GMI and $QQQ short term up-trend survived close calls last week. Normally the end of earnings period brings about market softness, and it is Sell in May time. I am mainly in cash and hold some GLD. We should know by Tuesday, after the White House meeting, whether we are likely to have a repeat of the 2011 debt ceiling crisis. If we do, then gold and long term treasuries should do well, based on my review of 2011 trends during that fight over raising the debt. Scared investors hide out in precious metals. Once we get by a possible debt crisis I will be more comfortable owning stocks.  On Friday, GLD gapped down but closed near its daily high. It is important that it hold Friday’s low of 185.77.  That is near the 30 day SMA and 21 day EMA.

Silver (SLV) chart looks almost identical to that of gold.

 

The GMI = 5 (of  6) and remains on a green signal. Note  that QQQ’s 10 wk avg has been above its 30 wk avg for 11 straight weeks. That tells me the bear market bottom is likely established, unless it fails.

Blog Post: Day 1 of $QQQ short term up-trend; GMI remains Green; It still looks to me like the market bottom is in, see charts and the new indicator added to GMI table

@ 7:44 pm
GMI4/6
GMI-27/9
T210848%

We had an unusual 2 day long new QQQ short term down-trend last week. I had noted that 40% of short term down-trends last 5 days or less but this was a rare, very brief one. And the GMI came close to turning Red las week, but held. My 10:30 weekly chart below shows QQQ (and also DIA and SPY, not shown) remains with its 10 week average above its 30 week average. And now the 30 week average is turning up, a powerful sign of a beginning Stage 2 up-trend. This is the pattern of new longer term up-trends.

Here is the bottom in 2020.

And in 2019

And in 2009

But this whipsaw pattern happened in 2016, indicating that past performance does not guarantee future results. No indicator is 100% perfect and we need to remain flexible and nimble. But to me, the odds favor a new major up-trend–until they don’t. If the index (gray line) closes the week back below the 30 week average (red line) is is an early sign of weakness and all bets are off.

The GMI remains on a Green signal. I added a new statistic to the table: the number of weeks the QQQ 10 wk average has closed above its 30 wk average. This captures the prime signal of the longer term up-trend I noted in the 10:30 week charts I discussed above.