100% cash; S&P 500 in Weinstein Stage 4 decline

GMI1/6
GMI-21/9
T210822%

I was tempted to buy some longs recently and paid the price.   I am now back to 100% cash.   With the GMI at 1, it makes no sense for me to be buying or holding stocks.   When the market turns up, there is plenty of time to go long and profit.   The QQQ short term up-trend is in its 2nd day but another weak day on Monday would begin a new short term down-trend. It is very difficult to have the discipline to stay out of the market, but a few losses quickly gets me back on track.   If I wanted to trade actively, I would be shorting or buying inverse ETF’s that go up as their underlying basket of stocks declines. Note that the QQQ has closed below its 10 week average for six weeks.     The SPY, which is weaker because it contains financial stocks,   has done so for seven weeks. The Worden T2108 Indicator is at 22%, in a neutral range, but close to the level where bottoms have occurred. On August 8, T2108 bottomed at 7%. It will be interesting to see if the market reaches that extreme weak level again.

This weekly chart of the S&P500 Index (click on chart to enlarge)   shows that index to be in a Weinstein Stage 4 decline.   Note that the 4wk average (red dotted line) is below the 10 wk average (blue dotted line) which is below the 30 wk average (red line).   This pattern is a sign to me of a major down-trend. We will know a new up-trend has begun when we get back to a pattern with the 4wk>10wk>30wk, as occurred last October at the beginning of that multi-month rally. The current decline looks more severe than the consolidation that occurred last year, because the 30 week average (red line)   is now declining. A declining 30 week average was one of the patterns that alerted me to get out of the market in 2000, and again in 2008. No one knows when this decline (or any decline) will end.   Better to be safely in cash than to try to guess the bottom. The GMI-2 will increase as the moving averages I monitor turn up and will alert me to a probable change in the primary trend of the market.

 

Futures portend down open; new QQQ short term up-trend in jeopardy; still in cash

GMI0/6
GMI-22/9
T210824%

I have been saying for quite some time that we needed to wait until the counter-trend rally was complete in order to see if the recent bottom will hold.   If the bottom holds, we could see the rally resume.   Still, the market remains in a longer term down-trend for now and it makes the most sense to me to stay in cash until the trend turns up.   The new QQQ short term up-trend could end with a decline on Tuesday. With the GMI at zero, it makes no sense to have any long positions.

I love to watch the new high list for clues to the next leaders when the market recovers.   Most stocks hitting new highs are gold-related. However, several other strong stocks that I am watching are:   MAKO, JAZZ, COG, CF and ALXN.   I will watch them patiently until the market trend turns up and the GMI approaches 4.

Market remains in down-trend as GMI2 rises to 2 (of 6)

GMI0/6
GMI-22/9
T210819%

I am still waiting for to see whether this base will hold.   Friday was the 18th day of the QQQ short term down-trend.   The longer term trend remains   down.   It is very tempting to nibble at stocks that are rebounding.   The problem is that the decline could resume quickly for such stocks.   It is much safer to own stocks when the GMI is at least 4.   With the GMI still at zero, I will let the bottom feeders get in before me.   When my indicators signal a true up-trend, I will get back in.   A trend follower always waits for a trend to develop and therefore identifies     bottoms and tops after they have been established. The GMI2 contains several more sensitive short term indicators which can turn up in a counter-trend rally   during a down-trend. Friday was the 18th day (D-18) of the current QQQ short term down-trend. Only 2 of the 9 leaders I follow have closed above their critical 10 week averages: AAPL and AZO.