GMI stays Green, for now; will $QQQ hold critical averages? GLB: $OLLI

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Since the first week in January after the market bottom, the QQQ has closed above its rising 4 week average every week except once in early March (A) and last week (B). Closing above the rising 4 week average is a sign of a strong advance. This week the market will reveal its short term direction by whether the QQQ can regain and close above its 4 week average (red dotted line). A close below the 10 week average (purple dotted line) would indicate a significant decline. Failure of the recent GLB is another major sign of weakness.

Some stocks are still hitting all-time highs. OLLI had a GLB last week. It has closed above its 4 week moving average the past 7 weeks.

 

The GMI is 3 (of 6) and remains Green.

$QQQ short term up-trend = 80th day, since 1990 longest up-trend= 88 days; GLB: $PAWZ

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Between Sell in May and the 80th day of the current QQQ short term up-trend, we may see some weakness shortly. Or is it just caused by the President’s tweets about the China talk? It will be a major sign of technical weakness if the recent GLB  (187.52) does not hold.

The recent pet care ETF IPO, PAWZ, had a GLB last week. Having inherited a wonderful mini labradoodle from my late sister, I now know personally how much people spend on their pets.

 

The GMI remains strong at 6 (of 6).

 

 

75th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $TQQQ beats individual stocks again!

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Since January 9, the first day of the current QQQ short term up-trend,  the following has occurred:

QQQ  +18.55%, DIA  +11.06%, SPY +13.74%, TQQQ +61.77%

None of the Nasdaq100 and S&P500 stocks beat TQQQ

Only 2.2% (9/412) of  stocks on my watchlist of IBD type growth stocks beat TQQQ.

The moral of the story, once again, is for me to hold the 3X QQQ leveraged ETF (TQQQ) rather than trying to find the extremely rare stock that will beat it. It takes a lot of courage to buy TQQQ at the beginning of a new up-trend, after stocks have been falling for a long time. I suspect that programming a machine to pull the trigger might work better…..

The GMI is a longer term trend indicator than my QQQ short term trend indicator. The GMI is 6 (of 6) and remains on a Green signal, since January 31.

 

 

 

 

 

 

GMI signals applied to $QQQ, January, 2016-April 18, 2019

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Every day after the market closes I compute the GMI total (out of 6) and post the current Red or Green signal. The chart below shows how the QQQ has acted during the times of a Red or Green signal The criteria for a change in color are described below the chart. The GMI helps me to trade consistent with the longer term trend of the market. The GMI is currently at 5 (of 6) and remains on a Green signal.