Schizoid market–GMI moves to 4 but $QQQ is at short term resistance


This is a schizoid market. My longer term indicator, the GMI, is at 4 and could turn Green with another day above 3. And the QQQ remains in a longer term Stage II up-trend. But my short term trend indicator for the QQQ is still down and in its 21st day (D-21). On Friday it looked like the QQQ was breaking through resistance, but it closed back below its important 30 day average. With futures down tonight, the indexes may slide at the open. But let’s give it time to discover whether the short term trend is about to close up. Note that September is historically the worst month for the market.

The solid red line is the 30 day moving average. Note Thursday’s green dot signal. A close above the 30 day average would be a bullish signal for me.


$QQQ short term trend down but longer term up-trend still holding


I like to compare the Daily Guppy chart to its weekly equivalent. The daily chart is in a down-trend while the weekly chart remains in a RWB up-trend. I therefore remain invested in my pension accounts which are long term but am in cash in my shorter term more nimble trading accounts. Check out the two chart patterns.

Weekly RWB pattern since last March!!!  June decline and current one appear minor in a weekly chart.


Daily RWB pattern gone for major Index ETFs; Day 1 of new $QQQ short term down-trend; GMI signal may change


I bought back covered calls and sold all of my positions in SPY and TQQQ last week when the ETFs closed below all of their red lines. Took a small position in SQQQ with the start of the new QQQ short term down-trend. However, my analysis below shows that about 40% of new QQQ short term down-trends last  5 days or less and 58% last 6-47 days.  I therefore remain very vigilant and flexible.

The daily RWB up-trends of the QQQ, SPY and DIA have all ended. They have each closed below all of their red and blue averages, as shown in this chart of QQQ. The dotted line represents the daily close. I will go long again in the market ETFs again when the dotted line closes above all of the red and blue lines and the red lines close back above the blue, leaving a white space between them (RWB pattern).

The SPY has closed below its 10 week average and the SPY, DIA and QQQ have closed back below their recent GLBs, a major sign of weakness. the GMI has declined to 2 (of 6). Another day below 3 will turn the GMI to a Red signal.