General Market Index (GMI) table

This weekly 10:30 chart of QQQ shows it to have closed (gray line)  below its 10 week average (dotted line) on above average trading volume. Compare this pattern to the decline last March and April. The question remains whether QQQ will retake this average or decline to the 30 week average (red solid line) or to the prior green line. A close below the 30 week average and if the red line turns down would give me a major Stage 4 sell signal and the likely beginning of a major decline. Since 2000 this signal got me out early from all major declines. For now, I prefer to be mainly in cash with a little SQQQ in my trading accounts. I only go to cash in my university retirement accounts when the markets are in a Stage 4 decline.

The GMI is 1 (of 6) and on a RED signal.

Either Friday’s bounce will hold or it won’t or it will fake us all out. The fact that QQQ (and DIA and SPY) all bounced their 50 day averages, their lower Bollinger Bands and had Blue dot signals suggests the bounce may hold. At least technical analysts will think so. But I must react, rather than predict or anticipate. If QQQ holds, I may buy some TQQQ. If it fails, I may buy some SQQQ. Or I may sit safely on the sidelines. The Blue Dot of Happiness oversold indicator is explained in my recent TraderLion Conference presentation on Day 6. These days I find it better to hold off pulling the trigger until late in the day when I know where an equity is likely to close. Otherwise I get whipsawed by the moves early in the day.

The GMI= 3 and the more sensitive GMI2=2. Another weak day for QQQ will end the $QQQ short term up-trend at day 54 and reduce the GMI to 2.