Market in strong up-trend; Beware the bearish media pundits; Gold’s “sudden” decline

GMI6/6
GMI-26/9
T210861%

All of my indicators remain positive. Most important, the QQQ has now closed back above its 10 week average price, after closing below it last week.   It is amazing to me how many of the media pundits are saying the market is too high when the SPY and DIA have just broken through their green line tops to all-time highs.   When a stock or index does this, it often is followed by a multi-month rise.   While a rise is not guaranteed, the index or stock should   stay above its green line level.   If it fails, like GLD (see example below) and AAPL did a while ago, then I would expect a major reversal of the-up trend.   The critical key is to not anticipate a change in trend, but to react after the signal is evident.   Such is the goal of the trend-follower. Take a look at these weekly Guppy charts of DIA and SPY.   They both have the RWB (red, white and blue) rocket pattern.

DIAguppy04122013

DISguppy04122013

Even the QQQ is in an RWB up-trend, although it is far below its green line top, around 119, reached in March, 2000. QQQguppy04122013

If these RWB patterns fail and the GMI flashes a sell signal, then I would reassess the market trend.   For now, I must assume that the up-trend will continue. I am therefore using TC2000 to scan for promising stocks. I ran my scan that looks for a daily new high that also has technical strength and recent good earnings increases. Here is the list of 7 stocks that came up based on Friday’s action.Newhighscan04122013 Interestingly, two are in the same sub-industry, SFLY and LNKD, which I own.   The blue flag on the left indicates that LNKD and WOR have shown up in one of my IBD stock watch-lists.   A glance at the monthly charts for these stocks shows me   that WY and SFLY are close to breaking though their green line tops to an all-time high.   The other five stocks have broken above their green line tops in the past few months.   Thus, all of these stocks are worthy of my subsequent review for possible purchase.   No one knows which of these stocks, if any, will rocket higher.   The key is to approach every purchase as if it will fail, and to have a ready exit strategy that will minimize losses. One successful trader I read has said that one could probably trade profitably by picking stocks by trial and error, as long as one quickly abandoned the losing positions with a small loss.   As he did, I use technical analysis instead of trial and error. The Wall Street maxim, cut your losses and let your profits run, is still sage advice. The GMI stats appear below.

GMI04122013

By the way, gold tumbled last week.   If you take a look at this monthly chart of the gold ETF, GLD, you will see that this decline should have come as no surprise.   GLD has been below its 30 week average (weekly chart not shown) and in a Weinstein Stage 4 decline since February and its green lie break-out last July has failed and GLD has established a new green line top. I trust that none of my students would have been holding GLD, thinking it was a bargain as it fell. I suggest that the time to buy a stock or ETF is when it first breaks above a green line top to an all-time high, a sign of major strength. That is how the great Nicolas Darvas made a fortune. You can find his book listed to the lower right of this site. It is the first book that I assign to my college students.

GLDgreenline04122013

By the way, the link to my free December TC2000 Houston webinar   appears to the right of this blog page and will provide you with an extensive introduction to my university class and trading strategies. I welcome your comments, please.

QQQ short term up-trend may end; head and shoulders top back in play; Sell in May?

GMI5/6
GMI-23/9
T210848%

I wrote on Friday morning that the QQQ short term up-trend may falter. More important, after 13 weeks, the QQQ has now closed the week below its critical 10 week average.   In contrast, the SPY completed its 14th week above its 10 week average. I have found it difficult to make money on the long side with tech stocks when the QQQ closes below its 10 week average. In fact, this weekly chart of the QQQ shows that the QQQ may be completing the right side of a head and shoulders top pattern.   A few weeks ago it looked like the index was moving above this region, signified by the blue horizontal line, but it has come back down.   We can see that the QQQ is now below the 10 week average (blue dotted line) and the critical 30 week average (red line) may be starting to curve down–a very ominous sign.   The QQQ is about where it was at the formation of the left shoulder last March, for a yearly gain of zero! A close below its 30 week   average (currently 66.81) would lead me to get very defensive on QQQ and IBD type stocks.   But it is best for me to wait for a definitive breakdown and not to anticipate one that may never materialize. Even if this is not a classic head and shoulders top, a failure of the rebound that began last November will likely lead to considerable short term weakness.

wklyqqq40052013

Meanwhile, IBD still sees the general market up-trend under pressure, and the GMI-2 is now at 3, reflecting short term weakness. The   GMI remains on the buy signal issued on February 28 and is at 5, but the QQQ short term trend could turn down with another weak day on Monday. The QQQ short term up-trend reached its 24th day on Friday. The Worden T2108 is at 48%, in neutral territory. Only 32% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed with their MACD above its signal line, also reflecting short term weakness. However, with the SPY and DIA still showing strength, this is a split market and very difficult   to trade. I remain 100% invested long in mutual funds in my university pension where I cannot trade often.   I am largely in cash in my trading accounts. If the QQQ continues to weaken I may buy some QID or SQQQ in my trading accounts and bet on weakness in the QQQ. We are getting close to the ominous Sell in May period.

GMI04052013

 

19th day of QQQ short term up-trend; my latest TC2000 scan results

GMI6/6
GMI-26/9
T210862%

The GMI and GMI-2 are both at 6 (of 6).   If one had purchased QQQ just   before   the close of day one (U-1) of the current QQQ short term   up-trend on 3/4, one would have a +1.9% gain, with QLD +4.0% and with TQQQ +6.3%.   During the same period SPY advanced +2.5% and DIA +3.0%, outperforming the QQQ. It remains to be seen whether the tech stocks reflected in the QQQ will continue to underperform the large stocks in the DIA and SPY. With T2108 at 62%, the market does not appear to be extended in either direction.

GMI03282013

The eleven stocks coming up this weekend in my TC2000 scan for technically strong stocks bouncing up off of support appear in the table below.   TREX, SWI and WHR are near green line tops. The stocks with blue flags appear in one of my watch-lists reflecting promising stocks discussed by IBD. This list is a good place for me to begin researching promising stocks for possible purchase–no guarantees!Scan0328