General Market Index (GMI) table

13 recent GLB stocks to monitor: $ALGN, $BMS, $CINF, $CNSL, $CPRT, $ELLI, $MO, $NLSN, $PNRA, $SWHC, $SYY, $TFX, $TXRH, $VSTO

@ 10:38 pm
GMI4/6
GMI-26/9
T210883%

With the GMI on a buy, IBD on a confirmed up-trend and my QQQ short term up-trend in its 10th day, I have been tip-toeing back into this market in my trading IRA. However, the longer term trend is not up,  so I am not ready to reinvest my university pension funds. I do think it is okay to talk about some stocks that appear to be showing technical strength. The stocks below all had a recent  green line break-out (GLB). This means they have formed a 3 month or longer top at an all-time high and have just broken through that top to a new all-time high. Such strength can sometimes signify the start of a large multi-month move. I am showing these GLB stocks as a way of explaining how I find promising stocks. When I do buy a GLB, I always exit if the stock comes back below the green line. This is a sign of a false break-out and technical weakness. When a stock breaks through its all-time top, I want to see an increase in volume as others rush in to buy. I often buy a stock back if it then closes back above the green line. Here are some weekly charts of stocks that hit a new yearly high on Friday and that have had a recent GLB. I have not researched them for a possible buy. Some of them had unusually large trading volume last week and there may have been an important announcement that would need to be reviewed and weighed before purchase. Before buying, I  always review the fundamentals of the company, its next earnings date, and other technical indicators. I am putting these GLB stocks in a watch list to monitor over the coming days. Let me know if you find such posts useful. These are weekly charts.

ELLI

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.22.17 PMNLSN:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.23.37 PMVSTO:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.24.36 PMCINF:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.25.24 PMSWHC:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.26.18 PMCPRT:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.27.00 PMBMS:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.28.19 PMPNRA:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.29.13 PMTXRH:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.29.57 PM

ALGN:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.31.40 PMMO:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.32.26 PM

SYY:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.33.15 PMTFX:

Screen Shot 2016-03-05 at 5.33.59 PMHere is the GMI table. GMI03042016

 

5th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; whither the general market?; strong stocks: $HA, $ELLI, $HOFT, $WBMD, $JBSS, $JBT, $VLRS

@ 3:18 pm
GMI2/6
GMI-25/9
T210859%

Please note that my QQQ short term trend indicator is much more sensitive than the GMI and I may use it to trade a short term up-trend within a longer term down-trend, like we have now. I have found that if a new QQQ short term trend can last for 5 days, it often has legs. When a trend changes from down to up, it is very difficult to accept it because there has often been a long down-trend prior to the change. We all have our hands on the rear view mirror as we try to navigate the market (and life!). I sometimes buy the leveraged 3X QQQ bullish ETF , TQQQ, on the first or second day of a QQQ short term up-trend and try to ride the up-trend. Short term up-trends, once they reach 5 days, can often persist for many days, the majority go on from 11-44 days, based on an analysis I did of trend changes between 2006-2013. So, I may buy some TQQQ at the beginning of a QQQ short term up-trend and average up slowly if the trend continues. But right now the GMI is on a Sell signal suggesting that if this short term up-trend should fail, it could come down in a hurry. I therefore wager very little money on such counter-trend bounces. (Don’t ask me to define little or how I average up, it depends on one’s personal account size and tolerance for risk.)

But I am growing more confident of the idea that this market has  put in a bottom that will last for a while. There is too much open bearishness on the internet and CNBC shows. Plus the T2108 hit an extremely low reading of 4% during the January decline, a level that is very rare and typical of past market bottoms. The weekly 10.4.4 stochastics indicators for the QQQ and SPY and DIA are also at oversold levels not reached since 2013. Finally, the Investors Intelligence poll published in IBD continues to show more investment letters being bearish than bullish, itself a very rare phenomenon. Typically bulls far outnumber bears for very long periods, and when the reverse happens, the market fools most prophets by going up.

The GMI takes a long time to reverse and with the major indexes still trading below their 30 week averages, the coast is not clear yet. But a major reversal has to begin with a change in the very short term trend, and that has happened, for now. I therefore remain largely in cash, but I am tiptoeing in with small purchases of  TQQQ and a few other strong stocks. There are a number of stocks showing some technical strength, which I am putting on my watchlists to monitor and research. Any stock that can come through the recent declines at or near its all-time high is showing strong buying interest by others. Here are a few, most of which have had a recent GLB (green line break-out to an all-time high):

HA:

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.09.14 PM

ELLI:

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.10.17 PM

HOFT:

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.11.35 PMWBMD is heading towards a GLB, but must prove its ability to break through.

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.14.20 PMJBSS:

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.17.26 PMJBT:

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.18.23 PMVLRS:

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 4.19.04 PM

One or more of these stocks may turn out to be a real market performer, but the GMI remains at 2 (of 6) and on a Sell signal since December.

Screen Shot 2016-02-27 at 3.41.07 PM

 

AAII presentation yesterday; world markets and banks in BWR down-trends; mainly in cash, see The Big Short

@ 11:34 am
GMI2/6
GMI-24/9
T210840%

I presented a workshop for three hours yesterday to the DC metro AAII meeting, about 80 wonderful attendees. I taught them how I use modified GMMA charts to determine the general market’s and an individual stock’s major price trends. I then showed them that the QQQ and SPY were in BWR (longer term blue moving averages above shorter term red moving averages with a white space between them) down-trends. I did not show them my watchlist of 38 index ETFs from around the world.  All but one, perhaps Ireland (where US companies are moving their corporate homes), are in fully developed BWR down-trends. Here are just a few:

Brazil:

Screen Shot 2016-02-21 at 11.06.12 AMIndia:

Screen Shot 2016-02-21 at 11.07.07 AMUnited Kingdom:

Screen Shot 2016-02-21 at 11.07.49 AMEmerging Markets:

Screen Shot 2016-02-21 at 11.08.37 AMIsrael:

Screen Shot 2016-02-21 at 11.09.25 AMIreland is the strongest of all, but a budding down-trend now:

Screen Shot 2016-02-21 at 11.10.48 AMI could have shown you the others, but you can trust me that  37 of 38 world market ETFs I looked at are in solid BWR down-trends. Are we scared yet? The last time I saw anything like this was in 2007 when all of the bank stocks were in BWR down-trends. How are the banks doing now?

Bank of America, BAC:

Screen Shot 2016-02-21 at 11.13.57 AM

Citicorp, C:

Screen Shot 2016-02-21 at 11.14.36 AMGoldman Sachs, GS:

Screen Shot 2016-02-21 at 11.15.25 AMWells Fargo, WFC:

Screen Shot 2016-02-21 at 11.16.26 AMAre the Dow Jones Transports turning around as some pundits have opined?

Screen Shot 2016-02-21 at 11.18.02 AMHow about the Dow 30 index?

Screen Shot 2016-02-21 at 11.18.43 AM

The GMI remains on a Sell signal and I am mainly in cash. Plenty of time to get back in later once the market has turned up. When will that occur and from what level?  Nobody knows (but don’t hold your breath)….. For some insight,  go to the movies and see The Big Short.

GMI02192016