General Market Index (GMI) table

$QQQ on precipice, $AAPL violates Yellow Band pattern

@ 9:28 pm
GMI4/6
GMI-24/9
T210857%

The weekly chart below shows the QQQ has, with one small exception in April, not closed a week below its 10 week average (blue dotted line). The 10 week average has in turn been rising well above the 30 week average (red line). This is a strong pattern I have been monitoring since the 90’s when I discovered it and named it the “Yellow Band” pattern. In those days I would draw a band with a yellow highlighter in the empty white space between the 10 and 30 week averages. Hence the name. As long as the QQQ closes this week above the 10 week average (currently 137.57), the bullish pattern will be maintained. This week is a critical week because of the 3 weeks of very heavy down volume, shown by the red volume spikes. Recently, the heavy volume down weeks have overshadowed the volume on up weeks, a possible sign of distribution by the institutions. A bounce up off of the 10 week average would be a very bullish sign to me.

One reason why I think the QQQ may fail is this weekly chart of AAPL, which has already violated its 10 week average on above average volume. Apple’s Yellow Band pattern is over, for now.

The SPY is holding up much better.

The GMI remains at 4 (of 6) and still on a Green signal.

 

 

 

 

35th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; Bloody Fridays often lead to Bloody Monday Opens

@ 10:30 pm
GMI6/6
GMI-24/9
T210859%

It remains to be seen whether there will be a follow-through on Friday’s tech wreck. Many of the tech stocks had gone vertical on their daily charts and they merely fell back to support. It remains to be seen whether Friday was the start of something more meaningful. A good example is AAPL. This weekly chart shows that AAPL has closed above its 10 week average (blue dotted line) for 27 straight weeks. On Friday, AAPL closed right above its 10 week average. A weekly close below its 10 week average would be a sign of technical weakness for me. On the other hand, it would have to close below its 30 week average (red line) for me to conclude that its longer term up-trend is over.

The GMI is 6 (of 6) but the more sensitive GMI2 has weakened to 4 (of 8).

 

 

30th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; enjoy the party; Judy tweets! Some interesting stocks

@ 10:44 pm

All of my market indicators are positive. Barring an unforeseen event, I see only clear skies for the current market. So many great stocks are surging higher. And now that I have changed my technical focus from daily charts to weekly charts, I am able to ride my winners longer without getting whipsawed. A bull market makes us all look like geniuses. But true genius is evident when one can minimize his losses when the market turns down. But for now, I am enjoying the party….

Those of you who have been following this blog know I have a stock buddy with an extraordinary ability to identify great stocks early. Judy is a concept trader. She reads voraciously and has the ability to pick out the few gems among all of the noise. She educated me about the cloud and exciting biotech innovations long before they became well known. Some of you have asked me what Judy has been focusing on these days. You can now follow her yourself on twitter:  @judyfr262 She expects a big week coming up for biotechs with the ASCO meetings……

I ran a scan this weekend for stocks with weekly technicals I like. I came up with 194. Here are the top stocks according to last quarter’s earnings. Note that not all of them are above their last green lines. This is only food for thought and these stocks must be researched further. I am monitoring OLED this week for a possible break-out.

Meanwhile the GMI is at 6 (of 6).