General Market Index (GMI) table

With bonds in a steep decline, the market will have competition from higher interest rates. This chart shows a daily RWB down-trend. With the GMI=1, I am mainly in cash in my trading accounts. There were only 45 US new highs and 218 lows on Friday. This is not a market for me to buy stocks at highs. But earnings season may cause a short term bounce up with so many indicators oversold. I won’t trust a rise until my indicators strengthen. Too many people I meet have gains from the past two years and remain eternally bullish–until the next large decline scares them out, at the bottom. If T2108, now 20%,  should go below 10% I may become interested in nibbling on an S&P500 index ETF, not in individual stocks, many of which might not recover.

I will not post again until next Tuesday. I sold my SQQQ today after the strong showing of QQQ.  I have noted that about 40% of the new QQQ short term down-trends end within 5 days. Let’s see what happens early next week.

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While the market indexes remain above key moving averages, I am concerned about what is happening under the hood. Few stocks are hitting 52 week highs or all-time highs. There were more lows than highs on Friday. And the GMI=2 and is flashing RED. I remain mainly in cash in my trading accounts. I will not retreat in my longer term university mutual fund accounts until I see longer term averages give way and turn down. I am also concerned because so many stocks I have been following have had non-stop advances. Many persons  may have been waiting until 2025 to take their gains so that they will not  incur 2024 taxes. We must be very careful right now.

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