General Market Index (GMI) table

Performance of GMI and $QQQ since 2006; Re-entering market

@ 10:34 pm
GMI6/6
GMI-28/9
T210865%

As you know, each weekend I post stats for my General Market Index (GMI), a collection of 6 indicators that help me to gauge the market’s trend. The GMI signal turns green after two consecutive days above 3. It then turns red after two consecutive days with readings less than 3. I am posting below two charts showing the QQQ during the periods when the GMI signal was red or green. I do not necessarily act quickly on a change in the signal, but the GMI does influence my trading greatly.

With the GMI signal turning Green, and the SPY breaking out of its descending trend line and above its 10 and 30 week averages, I started wading back into the market in my trading account and my university pension last week.

And here is the GMI table.

 

 

 

 

$SPY and $QQQ telling different stories.

@ 7:00 pm
GMI4/6
GMI-27/9
T210854%

The SPY is up against its descending down-trend and still below its 30 week average (solid red line) and 10 week average (blue dotted line).

But the QQQ looks stronger and is holding above its rising 30 week average and has regained its 10 week average. Note the higher volume down weeks too. Which index will lead the other?

The GMI = 4 (of 6) and remains on a Green signal.

 

Jury still out on this market

@ 10:19 pm
GMI4/6
GMI-23/9
T210854%

Below is a weekly chart of the SPY. It shows that the SPY closed above its rising 30 week average (solid red line) after having been well below it intraweek. Thus the Stage 2 up-trend remains intact. But there is a clear descending trend line. In addition, there are a lot of recent high volume down weeks, denoted by the arrows. This is institutional selling/distribution. Compare the pattern since late January with the pattern before, when it was comparatively easy to profit owning stocks. I am still out of the market, in cash, and waiting until earnings season is over to see if the market can hold its own. It could break either way……

The GMI remains Green and at 4 (of 6). The more sensitive GMI2 is focused on the QQQ and is weaker, at 3 (of 8).