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All of the shorter term averages (red) are rising above the longer term averages (blue) in a RWB up-trend. The daily closes are shown by the dotted line. Note the oversold bounce marked by a blue dot in the second daily chart. I plan to explain my blue dot indicator in my presentation at the Boston IBD Meetup online in May. More details about this meeting in a future post.

With QQQ now below its 30 week average, the Stage 2 up-trend is in serious jeopardy. I have begun to transfer university retirement accounts out of mutual funds. I do not want to give up the substantial gains they made the past 2 years. I would rather be safe than sorry. If the market holds I can always reinvest. If the 30 week average should curve down, I will take all remaining funds out of stocks. That strategy saved me from most of the declines in 2000 and 2008. The 30 week average is the solid red line in this chart. The last time QQQ closed the week below the 30 week average was last September, for one week only. Tops usually take a few weeks, with false rallies, to set up so I may be early. Youths under 30 can wait out any significant decline. I can’t.

I would not look for one stock, NVDA, to preserve this bull. After 2 years of 20%+ gains in the stock market, we should be prepared for a reversion to the mean. TSLA and MSFT are now in daily BWR declines. Perhaps the last to go will be AAPL. My university retirement funds remain in mutual funds for now. When I get the major sell signal and exit mutual funds, I will say so here. I will not post again until this weekend. While on vacation, I need to stay safe in cash and protect my trading capital.