The hourly GMMA chart can pick up changes in trend before the daily chart. This hourly chart shows TLT beginning an RWB up-trend. Why would longer term rates be coming down? Do traders suspect a recession and weaker economy down the line?
The index could bounce all the way back to the 10 week (purple dotted) or 30 week average (solid red) and still be in a Stage 4 down-trend. The 30 week needs to curve up for me to think the down-trend is ending.