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GMI: +5, GMI-S: 63; QQQQ still weak; Some possible winners

@ 12:01 am

The GMI rose to +5 and most of the indexes have recovered.  All but the QQQQ are in short term up trends.  However, the GMI-L is at 94, indicating that all indexes, including the QQQQ, remain  in longer term up trends.  Gmi0215 The failure of the QQQQ stocks to rise in the short term along with the other indexes causes me to be somewhat cautious.  But one should not fight the tape and the tape suggests that buying large and small cap (nontech?) stocks may be profitable.  68% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose Wednesday, along with 66% of the S&P 500 stocks and 60% of the Dow 30 stocks.  However, only 29% of the 4,000 stocks in my universe remain in short term up trends.  Still, there were 221 new yearly highs on Wednesday.  Wednesday was the ninth day (D-9) in the short term down trend in the QQQQ….

Among the stocks that hit a 52 week high on Wednesday, that have doubled in the past year and that have recent quarterly earnings increases of at least 70% are:  LMS, AIRM, KNDL, LDSH, ITRI, GES, ESRX, WDC, VSEC.  This list may be the place to look for future winners, if this rally is for real……

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI back to +4; GMI-S: 50; GMI-L: 94

@ 6:39 am

Tuesday’s rally took the GMI up two to +4.  The GMI-S rose to 50, with the Dow being the strongest indicator.  The GMI-L is at 94 reflecting the continuing strength in the longer term indicators.  Gmi0214 There were 145 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and 101 successful 10 day new highs.  The Daily SPY Index was too close to call.  Tuesday was the eighth day in the QQQQ short term decline (D-8).  90% of the Dow 30 stocks advanced on Tuesday, compared with 80% of the S&P 500 stocks and 65% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  In spite of the strength in the Dow 30 and S&P 500 stocks, the percentage of stocks in a short term up trend declined to  29%.  26% of stocks are now within 5% of their 52 week highs.  Only 4% of the stocks that have doubled the past year hit a new high on Tuesday.  It appears that the strength is coming in a different set of stocks than the recent leaders. 

GMI: +2; GMI-S: 19; Leaders crushed

@ 12:01 am

The market weakened again with the GMI now falling to +2.  I do not have tomorrow’s IBD yet.  If the IBD Mutual Fund Index is below its 50 day average, then we are really at +1.  The GMI-S fell to 19, with the DIA being the strongest of the indexes.  Gmi0213 Only 29% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Monday, along with 34% of the S&P 500 stocks and 40% of the Dow 30 stocks.  HON, HPQ and T are among the strongest Dow stocks.  There were only 87 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and 84 successful 10 day new highs.  Only 31% of stocks are in a short term up trend.  Monday was the seventh day in the QQQQ short term down trend……….

Since its peak on January 10, the QQQQ has declined 5.6% and 60% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have declined.  During this period the leaders have been crushed.  The biggest declines, in order were:  GOOG (-26%), YHOO (-25%), SNDK (-23%), ISRG (-21%), AAPL (-20%), INTC (-19%), WFMI (-18%), AMZN (-17%).  Most of these stocks are the IBD type of growth stocks that rocketed in a strong market.  The carnage sustained by these stocks does not bode well for the market. The leaders tend to be slaughtered first in a general market decline.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.