The GMI remains at zero, but the more sensitive GMI-R rose to one (of 10). There were 5 new highs and 994 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Tuesday. The T2108 indicator is at 4%. It will take a lot more of a rise in the indexes to turn the trend around. Tuesday was the 41st day of the current QQQQ short term down-trend. I am keeping an eye on LPHI, which is again showing strength.
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GMI: 0; GMI-R: 0; 40th day of QQQQ short term down-trend; shorting stocks at new lows
No change in my indicators on Monday. There were 3 new highs and 980 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday…..
Jesse Livermore once wrote that no stock was too low to sell (short). As you may know, one of the indicators in the GMI computes the percentage of stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago that closed today higher today then they closed 10 days ago. The logic is that in a rising market, stocks that break-out to new highs should keep rising. In fact, Nicolas Darvas wrote that a pattern of failed break-outs often tipped him off to a coming bear market. Well, the reverse is true in a declining market. In a declining market stocks hitting new lows should continue to decline. So, I compute each night a similar measure–the percentage of stocks at new lows 10 days ago that closed lower today than they did 10 days ago. Would you be surprised to learn that, with one exception, since September 8 (the 5th day of the current QQQQ down-trend) each day 50% or more of the stocks that hit a new low 10 days before closed lower than they did 10 days earlier. In fact, the percentages were above 80% on many of the days during this down-trend. The bottom line: during the current down-trend, shorting a stock on any day it hit a new low was very likely to be profitable 10 days later. Trade consistent with the down-trend or go to cash!
GMI: 0; GMI-R: 0; T2108: 2%; 39th day of QQQQ short term down-trend
My indicators remain at extremely low levels and the major indexes remain in down-trends. There were only 13 new highs and 1,576 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday. I see no evidence of any strength yet. EBS and LPHI, two promising stocks at new highs that I have written about, showed large price swings last week. This is typical of weak markets, when the few stocks that hit new highs cannot hold the gains. It is folly to go long during the time when the general market averages are in down-trends. I remain in cash and hold put options on a few stocks.