Dr. Wish

4th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; getting stronger; $AAPL to break out?

@ 9:03 pm
GMI3/6
GMI-25/9
T210854%

With so many media pundits talking about an imminent bear market, I think that sentiment may be too pessimistic.   The QQQ is now in its 4th day of its new short term up-trend and it closed the week back above its critical 10 week average.   The latter is a very significant development for me.

Furthermore, AAPL is holding its recent post split announcement gain and looks like it is getting ready for a large move.   Its Bollinger bands are forming a pinch, reflecting its recent consolidation.   It will likely break big one way or the other, and I suspect it will be up.   Why?   Because with an imminent 7 for 1 split, it will trade in early June around $85 per share.   A lot of people would like to own 100 shares of a cheaper AAPL and it does not take long for a stock to move from 85 to 100.   The funds will also likely buy it in June in preparation for end of quarter window dressing. If AAPL has a quick pop to $100, the stock will be back to the pre-split $700 per share.   Think what that will do to the QQQ which is heavily weighted with AAPL!

The daily GMMA chart of QQQ shows that the ETF may be moving up out of its recent base.   Click on chart to enlarge.

QQQdailyguppy05162014The consolidation is evident in the fact that the shorter moving average (red lines) have all converged above the longer term averages (blue).   The dotted line, which indicates QQQ’s daily close, is now above all of its shorter averages, potentially leading them higher.

Note also AAPL’s similarity to QQQ   in this enlargement of the daily Guppy chart for AAPL. AAPL looks stronger and   is also breaking above its shorter averages. AAPL has the strong RWB rocket pattern on its daily and weekly charts.

AAPLguppy05162014With AAPL showing strength and the QQQ short term up-trend about to reach its 5th day on Monday, I am starting to accumulate TQQQ, in anticipation of more upside to come. but I always have one foot out the door in case my positions weaken.

Meanwhile the GMI is   at a neutral 3. IBD also still sees the market in a correction. That could all change if we get a high volume follow through day this week.

GMI05162014

3rd day of $QQQ short term up-trend; $QCOR strong

@ 8:34 pm
GMI3/6
GMI-24/9
T210852%

Hard as it is to believe, the QQQ is still in a short term up-trend.   According to IBD the put/call ratio was 1.02 at Thursday’s close.   This is a contrary indicator. When the p/c ratio is greater than one it indicates option players are bearish.   When it gets to this extreme the market typically at least has a bounce.   A reading of 1.20 represents very extreme bearishness and is often followed by a rally.   We will have to see on Friday whether a reading of 1.02 is sufficient to turn this decline.

Meanwhile, I noticed strength in QCOR, which had a high volume green line break out to an all-time high about 5 weeks ago.   This weekly chart shows that QCOR is holding its own through this market weakness.   QCOR climbed 1.25% on Thursday. MNK is buying QCOR and shareholders will receive some payment in MNK shares.   With MNK rising, so does QCOR.

QCORwkly05152014

2nd day of $QQQ short term up-trend

@ 8:04 pm
GMI3/6
GMI-27/9
T210858%

Welcome to all of those who attended the U of MD. financial planner workshop on Wednesday.   You can find the list of the books I mentioned in my speech to the lower right side of this page.   For a quick review of my approach, please watch the December, 2012 video, link to the right of this post.

The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) remains in a longer term Stage 2 up-trend.   The weekly chart below shows the SPY to be rising nicely above its 30 week average (red line).

SPYwkly05142014

The QQQ (NASDAQ 100 ETF) is also in a Stage 2 up-trend, but is a little weaker than the SPY, as it is hugging the 30 week line. The green and red arrows on this chart represent the GMI buy and sell signals.

QQQwkly09142014I remain fully invested in mutual funds in my university pension.