$QQQ short term up-trend likely to end Wednesday; small caps entering Stage 4 decline

GMI2/6
GMI-23/8
T210826%

The SPY weakened on Tuesday as did the QQQ. The GMI could flash a Sell signal with another decline on Wednesday. Small stocks are about to enter a serious Weinstein Stage 4 decline, as shown by this weekly chart of IWM, the Russell 2000 Index ETF. In fact, IWM appears to have put in a double top. Note that the 30 week average (red line) is about to turn down. With the small cap stocks caving in, can the rest of the market be far behind?

IWMwkly09232014

27th day of $QQQ short term up-trend; indexes on support; GMI=3

GMI3/6
GMI-25/8
T210832%

Tuesday will largely tell the story whether this 27 day long short term up-trend in the QQQ is likely to end.   QQQ and SPY are sitting right on their 30 day averages and their lower Bollinger Bands. If they close below these key levels I suspect we are likely at the beginning of   a significant decline. The T2108 indicator is now at 32%, lowest since it hit 28% on August 8, just before the latest up-trend began. And the GMI has fallen to 3. This daily chart of QQQ shows that the underlying Nasdaq 100 index is on critical support. Note also the heavy selling volume (red spikes) the past two days. (Click on chart to enlarge.)

DailyQQQ09202014

Note the similar pattern in the SPY:

DailySPY09202014

Tuesday’s action will be very important to determining the near term trend of the market.