It is impossible to consistently predict what the market will do, except by luck. It is still possible, however, to use technical signposts to give one an edge for acting. This daily chart of QQQ shows some interesting things I monitor. First of all, the QQQ is below its 30 day average (red line) that is curving down. This is a very ominous short term sign. Second, note that the GMI has been on a Sell signal since January 6 and my short term daily trend indicator has now completed its 11th day (D-11, see GMI table below). Since 2006, 40% of these short term down-trends lasted between 11-44 days, 4% lasted 50+ days. The two solid magenta lines show the channel that the QQQ is currently within. Last Friday it bounced off of the lower channel line at which it has found support three times. It also found support near the lower daily 15.2 Bollinger Band (BB, see the bottom of gray area between the 2 bands). From all of the above, I think the QQQ is likely to rebound to the 30 day average, or to the top of the channel. If it should fail to hold Friday’s low, however, look out below………..
UWTI fell on Thursday on higher volume than it rose the previous day, thus contradicting what I said in my prior post. Perhaps it is better to sit on the sidelines and wait for definitive signs of a turn in oil. They finally got to the strong biotechs on Thursday. I closed out many of my most profitable positions (AGIO, KITE). I am content to be long a few stocks and to be short the QQQ with SQQQ. IBD sees the market in an up-trend under pressure. I think this is a great time for me to be mainly in cash. Want to know what people are buying? Check out this daily chart of Vanguard REIT ETF, VNQ near an all-time high: