Dr. Wish

Blog Post: Day 5 of $QQQ short term down-trend but $QQQ closes below 30 week average, a major sign of technical weakness.

@ 9:29 pm
GMI1/6
GMI-22/9
T210831%

With QQQ now below its 30 week average, the Stage 2 up-trend is in serious jeopardy. I have begun to transfer university retirement accounts out of mutual funds. I do not want to give up the substantial gains they made the past 2 years. I would rather be safe than sorry. If the market holds I can always reinvest. If the 30 week average should curve down, I will take all remaining funds out of stocks. That strategy saved me from most of the declines in 2000 and 2008. The 30 week average is the solid red line in this chart. The last time QQQ closed the week below the 30 week average was last September, for one week only. Tops usually take a few weeks, with false rallies, to set up so I may be early. Youths under 30 can wait out any significant decline. I can’t.

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Blog Post: Day 4 of $QQQ short term down-trend; GMI=1, see table; Look for leaders among those hitting ATHs; See list of 14 promising stocks at ATHs on Friday, 5 of them are in insurance industry, see daily chart of one of them, $PLMR.

@ 8:05 pm
GMI1/6
GMI-22/9
T210838%

These 13 stocks on my list of 559 promising stocks reached an all-time high, ATH, on Friday. They are ranked in descending order of the last column, close today divided by close 250 days ago. Only one of them, CCB,  is more than twice its price a year ago. The fact that 5 of them, PLMR, AXS, PGR, BRO, AJG are in the insurance business is noteworthy. As we all know, insurance costs have skyrocketed, thus growing profits for the industry. PLMR held its green line on above average volume after having a GLB  after recently releasing its earnings. During a weak market, stocks that can reach an ATH are showing incredible strength.  See PLMR’s daily chart below.

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The GMI is RED and both QQQ and SPY have closed below their 10 week averages. Time for me to be in cash and/or  very risk adverse with close stops in my trading accounts. I may nibble at a stock for insurance, however, ha ha. It is so much easier to be profitable trading long when the GMI is Green and registers 5 or more.

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Blog Post: Day 24 of $QQQ short term up-trend, likely to end on Tuesday; GMI=2 and flashes RED; $TSLA and $MSFT in daily BWR declines, see charts; Cash is king!

@ 5:47 pm
GMI2/6
GMI-22/9
T210837%

I would not look for one stock, NVDA, to preserve this bull. After 2 years of 20%+ gains in the stock market, we should be prepared for a reversion to the mean. TSLA and MSFT are now in daily BWR declines. Perhaps the last to go will be AAPL. My university retirement funds remain in mutual funds for now. When I get the major sell signal and exit mutual funds, I will say so here. I will not post again until this weekend. While on vacation, I need to stay safe in cash and protect my trading capital.

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