Stock Market Technical Indicators & Analysis
Dr. Wish We really should look at the daily and weekly modified Guppy chart before buying or selling anything. A RWB up-trend is when the 6 shorter term averages (red) are rising above the longer term averages (blue) so that there is a white band separating them. The dotted ine is the daily or weekly close, depending on the time frame charted.
We knew there would be a bounce back up from the large March decline. The key to the market’s direction will be whether the indexes can hold their March lows and retake their recent highs. See the modified daily Guppy chart of QQQ. Time will tell, but for now QQQ remains in a BWR decline.
The 10 week average (blue dotted line) is close to declining below the 30 week average (red solid line), an ominous development. Note that QQQ has closed the gap below the 4 week average and is thus no longer oversold.
When the 30 week average curves down, it means the current week’s close just added is less then its close 31 weeks earlier that has just been dropped from the average. Think of it, IWM is now lower than it was 31 weeks ago! For me this pattern is the kiss of death that got me to exit stocks before the major declines in 2000 and 2008. Last week, IWM rebounded to kiss its 4 wk average (red dotted line). Let’s see if it can close back above it this week. That would be a sign of strength. If not, there is an inverse ETF for IWM, TWM, but I must be nimble. if I should nibble.
What a weak market! When the Worden indicator, T2108, now 24%, falls below 10%, I might nibble at a little SPY, but not individual stocks, some of which may not come back..
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