Dr. Wish

Note that I have added a red dot indicator to my primary daily chart. A red dot indicates that a stock closes down on the day it exceeded its upper daily 15.2 Bollinger Band. I do not want to buy on a red dot bar and sometimes may want to sell or trade a potential decline. QQQ has been bouncing between its Bollinger Bands for some time. QQQ is also on its 50 day average (green dotted line). The GMI =2 and could turn Red on Thursday. Be careful.

While a new QQQ short term down-trend began on Friday, many end within 5 days. The fact that QQQ held its lower Bollinger Band, its 50 day and 10 week averages and had a black dot oversold bounce suggests that this bounce may hold. The key is to hold last week’s low. One thing going for the market is that first quarter earnings come out soon. However, now we are getting close to the “Sell in May and go away and comeback at Halloween” period. I am very defensive,  holding mainly cash in my trading IRA and am waiting for Mr/Ms Market to define itself. If QQQ bounces, it may find resistance at the upper BB, around 449. If the Fed decides not to lower rates this year, the market could dive.

The GMI is now at 4 (of 6) but it is still on a Green signal.

A lot of technical damge was done on Thursday. Friday’s reaction to the jobs report should determine whether this decline will broaden. 10 week average is the blue dotted line. Support for the longer term up-trend is the 30 week average (red solid line).