Dr. Wish

Blog Post: Day 27 of $QQQ short term up-trend; 55 US new highs and 165 new lows; 3 GLBs Tuesday: $TMDX, $DEN, $CELH, see charts and list of 13 at ATH

@ 8:58 pm
GMI5/6
GMI-22/9
T210862%

I am 100% cash in my accounts. I do not like the fact that the major indexes are now below their declining 30 week averages. There were only 13 stocks that traded at all-time-highs (ATH) on Tuesday and 3 of them were green line break-outs (GLBs). Here are the 3 GLBs. If any closes below their green lines, I would sell immediately. CELH had the best pattern with above average volume. Remember, in a weak market GLBs and other break-outs tend to fail.

Here are all 13 stocks at an ATH, ordered by change since a year ago.

 

Blog Post: This week may tell us whether the recent bounce was more than a bear market rally; $BJ is an example of a failed GLB, see chart

@ 11:07 pm
GMI5/6
GMI-22/9
T210872%

The weekly chart of QQQ shows that it retraced to its 30 week average (red solid line) last week. If it holds the 4 week average (red dotted line) and the 30 week average this week I think the new up-trend is intact. If it closes this week below the 30 week and the 4 week, we are likely in store for much more weakness.

I tweeted earlier Sunday, @wishingwealth,  about the need for more examples of failed break-outs to help people learn how to recognize when a break-out fails. Many break-outs fail, especially in a declining market. BJ had a failed green line break-out on Friday. It failed to close above its green line (74.09) on Thursday and closed below it on Friday. When a stock closes back below its green line I must sell out. If a set-up is violated one must always sell. If BJ were to close back above its green line, it might be a buy.

The GMI remains Green and is at 5 (of 6). Note however how few (2) of the GMI2 components are positive. The GMI2 is sensitive to very short term moves. Friday was a weak day.