GMI:+2; More new lows than highs; IBD growth funds falter; Short or in cash

The market internals deteriorated further Wednesday.  Only 31% of stocks in my universe of 4,000 are in a short term up-trend and 39% closed above their 10 week averages, the lowest reading since I began tracking this indicator last June, and down from a high of 84% in July.  Gmi921 The GMI is at +2.  There were more than 100 new highs yesterday (153) and the longer term QQQQ weekly indicator is still positive.  While there were 104 successful 10 day new highs, this total represented only 36% of all new highs 10 days ago–so I consider this indicator to be questionable (?).  There were more new lows (158) than new highs (153) -a very bad omen.  Most telling, the IBD growth mutual fund index is now below its 50 day average, indicating that the pros are faltering now too.  I never make money trading growth stocks when the growth managers aren’t successful.  The percentage of stocks closing within 5% of their 52 week highs is now down to 20% while those near their lows increased to 10%.  Only 13-22% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 advanced on Wednesday….

For me, this is a time to be short or in cash.  According to my indicators, we are much closer to the beginning of a decline than to the end.

Please send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI declines to +3; Going to cash or short

The GMI declined to +3 on Tuesday. While there were 213 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks, there were only 55 successful 10 day new highs. There were 81 new lows, the most since I began posting them last May.  Gmi920 Only 40% of stocks are in a short term up-trend and only 46% are above their 10 week averages.  While 29% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced, only 19% of the S&P 500 and 13% of the Dow 30 stocks rose.  The QQQQ and SPY daily indexes have turned negative.  The market is in the beginning of a short term decline (D-1), or worse.  Oil and gas related stocks dominated the new high list and housing stocks continued to break down………………. With the GMI weakening, the odds are against taking new profitable long positions, especially in growth stocks at new highs. Going to cash or short………………..

Please send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: +6; Teetering on support

The market weakened on Monday and is sitting on support.  The GMI is at +6 and there is no change in my outlook since my prior post.  Only 10-17% of the stocks in the Dow, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 advanced Monday.  We had the highest number of new lows (62) since July 29.  But there were still 267 new highs, suggesting that there is strength in a concentrated minority of sectors (mostly energy related or metals).  Gmi919 The percentage of stocks in my universe of 4,000 that are in a short term up-trend is now at 46%.  This is the 10th day of the QQQQ up-trend (U-10) and this trend is vulnerable to a reversal if there is a meaningful close today below the short term moving averages.  It should be an interesting day.

Please send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.