Dr. Wish

I suspect Monday’s morning rally was a last chance to unwind long positions.  Given the internal weakness of the indexes described in my weekend post, this market is likely to be heading lower.  The GMI rose to +2, because there were 149 new yearly highs. 60% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks, 47% of the S&P 500 stocks and 50% of the Dow 30 stocks advanced on Monday.  The percentage of stocks above their 10 week averages increased to 42%.  Monday was day 5 in the current QQQQ down-trend (D-5)…………

Since September 12 when the QQQQ reached a minor peak, 82% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have declined. During this same period, 82% of the 239 industry group averages tracked by TC2005 also declined.  In contrast, the following industry groups have advanced the most in this weak period:  Gold (+10.39%), Silver (+8.65%), Copper (+7.63%), Steel and Iron (+7.32%) and Metals and Mining (+5.75%), followed by a host of energy related industries.  Jim Rogers was correct when he proclaimed that we are in a major bull market in commodities.  Those of us who typically trade the tech growth stocks are probably missing this boat.

Please send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

The GMI has declined to +1.  Only 24% of stocks are in a short term up-trend.  This is the fourth day in the QQQQ down-trend.  Only 71 stocks hit a new high on Friday, out of 4,000 stocks in my universe.  While there were 118 successful 10 day new highs on Friday, this represented only 34% of all stocks that hit new highs 10 days earlier.  So, I still consider this index to be negative. Only 37% of stocks are above their 10 week averages and only 20% are within 5% of their 52 week highs. The extent of the deterioration in the market indexes can be seen in the WPM.

In contrast to last week, now none of the 5 indexes closed above their 30 day averages and only about one third of their component stocks closed above their 30 day averages.  The QQQQ index stocks look the weakest, with only 26% above their 30 day averages.  The Dow 30 stocks tracked by the DIA is now below its 30 week average–a very bad omen.  While the other indexes closed above their 30 week averages, it is noteworthy that only 37% of the Dow 30 stocks and about one half of the stocks in the other indexes are above their 30 week averages. 

This is a very weak market and I remain in cash and short, with few exceptions.  Earnings warnings will be coming out soon and driving some stocks lower. If you want to find out the dates on which specific companies will report earnings, go to this site.

Please send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

The GMI remains at +2, with little change in my indicators since Wednesday. Only 26% of the stocks in my universe of 4,000 are in a short term up-trend.  48% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks, 47% of the Dow 30 and 59% of the S&P 500 stocks rose on Thursday–not a very strong rebound. There were 166 new lows and 114 new highs.  This is day three (D-3) of the QQQQ down-trend.    19% of stocks are within 5% of their 52 week highs and 10% are within 5% of their lows. I remain mostly short or in cash.

Please send me your feedback at: silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.