Dr. Wish

The GMI is stable at +4 and there were few changes in my indicators on Wednesday.  In spite of the Dow’s 100 point rise, there were 11 fewer yearly new highs than on Tuesday (120 vs. 131).  The percentage of stocks in a short term up trend declined to 46%.   However, the most stocks advanced in the past 10 days.  69% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose, along with 69% of the S&P 500 stocks and 80% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Only 13% of the stocks that have doubled in the past year hit a new high on Wednesday.  The GMI-S rose a little to 25.  Wednesday was the fourth day (D-4) in the current short term down trend in the QQQQ.

The leaders, GOOG and AAPL,  continue to look sick.  I have to wonder whether when this bull finally turns its attention to CSCO, the up cycle is near the end of the line.  Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

The GMI held at +4, but the GMI-S fell to 19.  All four short term indicators for the DIA, QQQQ and SPY are now negative.  Even the indicators for the IJR began to weaken.  The continued weakness in the leaders is a sign of weakness to come throughout the markets.  Only 39% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Tuesday, along with 28% of the S&P 500 stocks and 30% of the Dow 30 stocks.  Only 49% of stocks are in a short term up trend.  There were 131 yearly highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Only 50% of the 333 stocks that hit a new high ten days ago closed higher on Tuesday than they did ten days before.  Buying stocks at new highs has therefore been profitable only about one half the time.  Only 10% of the stocks that have doubled the past year hit a new high on Tuesday.  The percentage of stocks within 5% of a yearly high has fallen to 25%.  Currently the odds are against being long stocks.  Cash is king.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

The GMI remained at +4 after Monday’s trading.  There were 167 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  48% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose along with 57% of the S&P 500 stocks and 43% of the Dow 30 stocks.  The GMI-L and GMI-S were unchanged. Monday was the second day (D-2) of the short term QQQQ decline.  Still 68% of stocks closed above their 10 week averages, but only 52% were in a short term up trend.  The market remains in a short term decline with the longer term indicators still pointing up.  This is the  time for me to be on the side lines in my trading account………………

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.