Dr. Wish

GMI: +5; Dow 30 and S&P 500 strong; Rally not trusted

@ 12:01 am

The GMI rose to +5, and the S&P 500 and Dow 30 stocks strengthened.  Even the QQQQ looks like it may fall into place, although it is still in the thirteenth day of a short term down trend (D-13).  Gmi0222 There were 359 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  85% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Wednesday, along with 79% of the S&P 500 stocks and 73% of the Dow 30 stocks.  43% of stocks are in a short term up trend, up from 29% a week ago.  And 70% of stocks closed above their 10 week averages.  All indicators increased and 32% of stocks are now within 5% of their 52 week highs….

I attended our local IBD Meetup tonight.  It struck me that this is the rally that people love to hate.  Why do we appear to distrust this up trend in the large cap stocks, as measured by the Dow 30 and the S&P 500?  Maybe this rally has further to go.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI falls to +4; Major divergence in QQQQ

@ 6:55 am

The GMI feel to +4, with only 74 (44%) successful 10 day new highs.  Stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago are unlikely to have closed Tuesday above where they closed 10 days earlier.  Gmi0221 The QQQQ is looking very weak.  Only 15% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Tuesday, along with 35% of the S&P 500 stocks and 33% of the Dow 30 stocks.  The QQQQ fell below its 10 day average and all short term indciaotrs are negative. The GMI-S therefore fell to 63%.  The striking divergence between the QQQQ and the otehr indexes will need to be corrected soon.  At some point these market indexes will come into synch with each other.  Time to short the QQQQ?  IBD Meetup tonight.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: +5; All indexes strong but QQQQ; Some interesting stocks

@ 12:01 am

All indicators held on Friday, as the GMI remains at +5.  Only the Daily QQQQ Index is negative, with the QQQQ in its eleventh day of a short term down trend (D-11).  Gmi0217 There were 307 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  33% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Friday, along with 45% of the S&P 500 stocks and 47% of the Dow 30 stocks.  37% of stocks are in a short term up trend and 69% are in a longer term up trend.  39% of stocks closed above their 10 day average for the past 4 days, an indication of strength.  31% of all stocks are within 5% of their 52 week highs………….

The WPM clearly highlights the lagging Nasdaq 100 stocks.  Wpm0217 Only the QQQQ failed to close above its 30 day average.  In addition, only 47% of its components stocks did so, compared with 59% or more of the components of the other four indexes.  In contrast, all five indexes closed above their longer term 30 week averages, as well as 63% or more of their component stocks…….

I should not spurn all stocks now just because the Nasdaq 100 type stocks are relatively weak in the short term.  There are plenty of big cap stocks (especially financials) and small and mid-caps that are in up trends and ready to purchase. Nevertheless, it is always better to have all of these indexes in synch with each other.  Some stocks I am looking at are: KOMG, ADAM, OXPS and ET.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.