Dr. Wish

The GMI rose to +1 because 58% of the stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher on Thursday than they did 10 days before.  For the first time in a while, buying new highs was likely to have been profitable. The other 5 indicators remain negative.  The short term GMI-S rose to +25.  It is too soon to tell whether this  bounce will become a major up-trend.  88-92% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and the Dow 30 rose on Thursday.  There were 81 new highs and 26 new lows in my stock universe. 16% of the stocks in my universe of 4,000 are within 5% of a new high, and only 9% are that close to a new low.Thursday was the fifteenth day (D-15) in the current QQQQ short term down-trend……..

The IBD 100 growth stocks did quite well on Thursday.  84% rose and 85% closed higher then they opened.  81% closed above their 10 day averages.  Still only 8% hit a new high and only 40% of stocks are above their key 30 day average and only 12% are in a short term-up trend.  29% bounced above their 10 week average–a sign of possible support.  The longer term trend looks better for the IBD 100 stocks, with 89% closing above their 30 week averages…….

I am nibbling at  1-2 break-out stocks but with the GMI at +1, I remain mostly in cash and in a few puts.  Failure of this rally could lead to a significant decline.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

The GMI remains at zero and there is no reason to change from a defensive posture.  78% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced on Wednesday, along with 84% of the S&P 500 stocks and 90% of the Dow 30 stocks.  There were still more new lows than new highs (66/41) in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Wednesday was the fourteenth day (D-14) in the QQQQ short term down-trend.

23% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages, up from a low of 11% on 5/23.  28% are now above their 10 week averages, up from a low of 21% on 5/23.  12% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are in a short term up- trend, up from a low of 6% on 5/24.  So, although the indicators remain very negative, they have moved up from their recent lows. 

The IBD 100 growth stocks performed much like my universe of stocks. 75-79% of both groups of stocks advanced on Wednesday and 68-70% closed higher then their opening prices.  However, only 26% of my universe of stocks closed above their 30 day averages, as did 30% of the IBD 100 stocks.  Only 10-12% of both groups are in a short term up-trend.  The longer term trends are still stronger for the IBD 100 growth stocks than for my general universe of stocks; many more IBD 100 stocks closed above their 10 and 30 week averages.

I remain mainly in cash and holding some puts.  I like corrections, however, because it is easier to find the next set of leaders.  The next leaders tend to be among the first to hit new highs.  Today, there were 41 new highs.  Among them were three  stocks that had triple digit earnings gains in the most recent quarter:  GLBL, IFO and WHQ.  These stocks may be worth watching when the market turns……………..

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

The GMI remains at zero and now my longer term indicators are declining.  Weakness in the IJR and SPY indicators reduced the GMI-L to 50; only one half of my longer term indicators remain positive.  On Tuesday, none of the Dow 30 stocks advanced, but 9% of the S&P 500 stocks did along with 10% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  My universe of 4,000 stocks and the IBD 100 stocks each did a little better, with 14% gaining.  There were 8/22 successful 10 day new highs but 73/116 successful 10 day new lows.  Shorting and holding new lows 10 days ago was much more likely to be profitable than buying and holding new highs.  There were 34  new highs and 60 new lows on Tuesday.  Tuesday was the thirteenth day (D-13) in the current short term down trend in the QQQQ. 

Almost all my indicators for my universe of stocks and the IBD 100 stocks declined.  However, stocks in a short term up trend increased 1-2% for each set of stocks. ….

I remain in cash or in puts in my IRA.  I go with the trend and only reverse after the trend has.  In a short time we should probably understand what economic events the market has been anticipating. 

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.