Dr. Wish

GMI: +2; Weakness continues; in puts or cash

@ 8:16 am

The GMI is still at +2 as my internal indicators, especially for tech stocks,  continued to weaken on Monday.  Gmi0710 Only 26% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks advanced, compared with 61% of the S&P 500 stocks and 63% of the Dow 30 stocks.  There were only 67 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and only one new high (PMTI) in the IBD 100 list from 5/15.  Since the IBD 100 list was posted on 5/15, 25% of those stocks have advanced, compared with 35% of the stocks in my universe.  With odds  like these it makes no sense to chase the IBD type of growth stocks, unless one is partial to casino action that favors the house.  The key to survival in the market is to play only when the odds are in one’s favor.  In this environment my IRA remains short with put options or in cash.  There will be plenty of time to jump upon this train when it finally sets a northerly course.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI: +2; Holding cash

@ 7:50 am

The GMI is +2 and we are in the second day (D-2) of the new QQQQ down-trend. I will wait to commit funds Gmi0707 until after earnings season.  Since 5/15, only 27% of the IBD 100 stocks listed on that date and 34% of my universe of nearly 4,000 stocks have advanced at all.  With odds like these I should only be short or in cash.  My scan of the market yielded 16 rocket stocks and 384 submarines.  Only 2 IBD 100 stocks (PMTI, CME) from the list on 5/15 hit a new high on Friday.  It would be insane to chase growth stocks and anticipate new highs in this market.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.

GMI:+2; D-1?; Staying in cash

@ 12:01 am

The GMI fell to +2, with the initiation of a possible new short term down trend in the QQQQ.  Gmi0706 48% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Thursday, along with 54% of the S&P 500 and 63% of the Dow 30 stocks. However, there were only 80 new highs and 49 new lows in my universe of nearly 4,000 stocks.  39% of the stocks in my universe and 78% of the IBD 100 stock list on 5/15 are in a bullish stage 2 up trend.  However, 83% of my universe of stocks (93% of the IBD 100 list) closed above their MACD signal line, suggesting an upward trend in most stocks. Only 55% of the IBD 100 stocks from 5/15 advanced on Thursday compared with 58% of my universe of stocks.  Only four of the IBD 100 stocks from the list on 5/15 hit a new high:  EZPW, HOC, HANS and PMTI. Only 31 of the IBD 100 stocks from 5/15 closed higher Thursday than they did on 5/15.  The market has not yet tipped its hand.  I think this is a time for staying in cash.

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.