GMI: 6; Window dressing over; October surprise?

The GMI held at +6 and window dressing will come to an end on Friday.  Between 53-61% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Thursday.  Gmi0928 There were 170 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  72% of the stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago closed higher on Thursday than they closed 10 days earlier.  Thus, buying new highs has likely to have been a profitable strategy. The QQQQ is in its 29th day of an up-trend and has closed above its 10 week average for 7 consecutive weeks.  When the QQQQ remains above its rising 10 week average, I typically make money trading on the long side. Since the beginning of the QQQQ up-trend in mid-August, that index has risen 8.3% and 81% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have advanced; 38% of the stocks are up 10% or more.  Riding with the market trend has produced splendid odds of making a profit.  In comparison, only 51% of the IBD 100 stocks posted on 5/15 have advanced during the same period…

We are now approaching the terrible month of October when many large declines have occurred and important bottoms have been put in.  I have often times gone to cash in October and bought back in in early November.  Studies have shown that the period from November through April contains a disproportionate amount of market gains.  But everyone is so smart now and expects an October decline first, before we get the end of year strength.  With the GMI indicators so strong, this might be the time that October fools the masses.  I would not be surprised to see an early sharp decline followed by a strong rebound that leaves many skeptics behind.

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GMI: 6; IBD Meet-up not bullish; IBD 100 new highs

The GMI remains at 6, but the QQQQ was the weakest index Wednesday.  53% of the Dow 30 stocks advanced along with 46% of the S&P 500 stocks but only 38% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks.  Gmi0927 But there were 202 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks and Wednesday was the 28th day of the current QQQQ up-trend.  Only 44% (4/9) of my IBD meet-up members were optimistic tonight about the next few months, suggesting to me that this market will be higher come November.  66%of the IBD 100 stocks from 5/16 and 75% of the IBD 100 list from 8/14 closed higher on Wednesday, suggesting that IBD type growth stocks were stronger on Wednesday.  Seven stocks from the list on 8/14 hit new highs:  FMD, TNL, NITE, GYMB, TWGP, GILD and CTSH.  Some of these stocks might lead a year end up-trend…

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GMI: 6; Window dressing continues

The GMI is at 6.  If you read my post last Monday, you know that I expected a strong week with the mutual funds buying up the strong stocks for their end of quarter portfolio reports.  Gmi0926 At the same time most of the media pundits were wringing their hands over inflation and housing woes and expecting a down week.  It pays to think for yourself and go against the crowd. 

Please send your comments to:  silentknight@wishingwealthblog.com.