The GMI is back to 6 but the GMI-S slipped to 63. Only 31% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks rose on Tuesday, along with 45% of the S&P 500 stocks and 43% of the Dow 30 stocks. Only 21 of the IBD 100 stocks from 11/20 advanced and 13 of them hit a new 52 week high. Just 58% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed higher than their 30 day averages, down from 74% on November 24. This market has still not tipped its hand. However, the fact that the market leaders (AAPL, GOOG and RIMM) have all closed below their 30 day averages is a bad omen for the general market. Since the QQQQ peaked on 11/24, that index has fallen 1.9% and 59% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks have declined.
Dr. Wish
GMI: 5; GMI-S: 69; 80th day of QQQQ up-trend
The GMI declined one, to 5, as there were only 96 stocks that hit a new high 10 days ago and closed higher on Monday than they closed 10 days ago. (I count 50% as positive for this indicator only if there were too few new highs 10 days earlier to achieve the required 100.) 50-56% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose on Monday. There were 259 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. 53% of the IBD 100 stocks published on 11/20 rose and 20 of them hit a 52 week high. The GMI-S slipped 6, to 69, as one of the short term indicators for the IJR (S&P smallcap 600 ETF) turned negative. Monday was the 80th day of the current QQQQ up-trend.
GMI: 6; Follow instruments and/or gut? IBD100 stocks thrive
The GMI remains at a maximum of 6. There were 195 new yearly highs in my universe of nearly 4,000 stocks on Friday and Friday was the 79th day in the QQQQ up-trend. 55-62% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes advanced on Friday.
With my market indicators so positive, some of you have written to me asking me why I have been raising cash and even taking on a position in QID, the ultra inverse ETF for the QQQQ. You raise an important question that I have been struggling with. Why not stay with the up-trend signaled by the GMI and not try to anticipate a change in trend? You may be right– maybe I should fly on instruments. But doing so subjects me to a possible large cut in my profits because my indicators will only call the peak after the indexes have fallen some. So, to retain profits I have decided to cut back.
Furthermore, while the GMI indicates that the up-trend is intact, there are a number of other signs that make me cautious: 1) there are twice as many bullish than bearish newsletters; 2) some market leaders (GOOG, AAPL and RIMM) have stopped hitting new highs; 3) the MACD for the QQQQ is declining; 4) the QQQQ has closed 7 of the past 10 days below its 10 day average; and 5) market peaks have been common in December the past 5 years.
In addition to the above, I prefer to phase in and out of my positions in the market index ETFs. When I turned bullish I bought on the way up. Now, I am simply cutting back in stages. If it turns out that some of the warning signs above lessen or reverse, I will buy more QLD again…..
Meanwhile the IBD 100 lists in the recent past have done quite well. Four of the five lists closed higher than on the day they were published. 64-82% of the individual stocks closed higher than their 30 day averages. The list from 11/20 had 16 new yearly highs on Friday. Compared with the Nasdaq 100 stocks, the IBD 100 type of growth stocks appear to be thriving in this market.