Dr. Wish

GMI: 6; GMI-S: 75; Whipsawed again

@ 12:01 am

The GMI returned to 6 and the GMI-S rose to 75. Gmi0124_2  The QQQQ appears to be starting another up-trend (U-1).  It also looks like GOOG may have another earnings related bounce–it reports on 1/31.  There were 303 new highs on Wednesday in my universe of 4,000 stocks. 80-90% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow 30 indexes rose.  The 30 day moving average for the QQQQ is flat and when that happens the index often times goes back and forth around its 30 day average.  These whipsaw moves are very frustrating and hard to trade profitably.  As long as the GMI is above 3, it may be better to stay long in the other ultra long index ETF’s; MVV, SSO and DDM.  Their underlying indexes are exhibiting consistent up-trends.

See bottom of my prior post for my disclaimers.

GMI: 5; Day 1 of QQQQ down-trend?

@ 12:01 am

The GMI fell to 5, as the Daily QQQQ Index turned negative.  Gmi0123_1Still, there were 208 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  And the GMI-S rebounded to 63, with strength in the small-cap stocks (IJR).  This looks like the first day in a new QQQQ down-trend (D-1), but time will tell.

See my disclaimers at the bottom of today’s post.

Blogdisclaimer_4

GMI: 6?; GMI-S: 44; Long odds for going long

@ 11:08 pm

The GMI remained at 6, bearly (pun intended).  However, the GMI-S fell 31, to 44, as many of my short term indicators turned negative.  The QQQQ and IJR indicators are almost all negative.  Gmi0122 Another down day in  the QQQQ will turn my Daily QQQQ Index negative.  Still, there were 145 new 52 week highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  But only 17-25% of the stocks in the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and D0w 30 indexes rose on Monday.  The three market leaders, AAPL, GOOG and RIMM are pretty weak.  Also, the QQQQ is now below its 10 week average, a key indicator for me.  I rarely make money on the long side in growth stocks when this index is below its 10 week average.  So, the odds for going long are getting pretty long for me.  See my disclaimers at the end of my prior post.