Dr. Wish

GMI: 4? and on the edge; GMI-S: 13; IOC—YIKES!!!

@ 12:01 am

The GMI is down to 4 and could fall to 2 tomorrow with another down day.  The GMI-S is down to 13.  Gmi0626 There were only 56 new highs and 84 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  Two indicators are too close to call (?), so I left them positive.  Tuesday was the 59th day of the current QQQQ up-trend and it would not surprise me to see a new down-trend.  The QQQQ has closed above its 10 week average for 12 weeks.  The SPY is now below its 10 week average.  The Worden T2108 indicator shows 34% of stocks above their 40 day average, far from the 80% peak in April, but not low enough to where declines typically end, around 25%.  So, this decline could have  more to go…..

I was bloodied by IOC on Tuesday.  The stock fell 30% and evaporated many of the gains I had achieved by selling high premium calls on it the past two months.  This was an important lesson about not being too greedy on such bets….

I still suspect we will have an earnings rally in July.  The put/call ratio was over 1 on Tuesday, a bullish sign because options players are betting on a decline. However, if the GMI continues to weaken, I will go to cash and purchase QID or SDS to make money  on the short side.

Blogdisclaimer

Gmi-5; GMI-S, 19; markets weakening; GOOG, GRMN, IOC

@ 12:01 am

The GMI fell to 5 on Monday, with only 94 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. The GMI-S fell to 19, with few short term indicators remaining positive. I still think that this decline is setting up a rally when earnings come out in July.  The major indexes are still above their 10 week averages.  So, while the short term may look weak, the longer term up-trend is still intact.  I am holding covered call positions and a lot of cash.  GOOG and GRMN still look strong.  And then there is IOC which is giving me 10% premiums on my covered calls.  A lot of people must be betting that their natural gas find will pan out.  I am very pleased to sell these persons calls on my shares at huge premiums.

I will let you know if my indicators weaken.

Note my disclaimers on my prior posts.

GMI: 6; GMI-S: 31; FTO strong and GOOG on launch pad

@ 9:05 am

The GMI is still at 6, although my short term indicators are weakening; now only 31% are positive.  Still, the up-trend has not been broken.  Nevertheless, I remain ready to respond if the GMI falls below 4.  The Worden T2108 indicator is at 41, still not really in bottoming territory.  This decline may set up an earnings rally early in July.  Meanwhile, oil industry stocks are strong and FTO, which I own, continues to climb. GOOG looks ready to go to new highs.  Have a nice weekend.

See my disclaimers on prior posts.