GMI: 0; 8 new highs and 556 new lows; Shame on Cramer

The GMI remains at zero and there were 556 new lows and 8 new highs in my universe of 4,000 stocks. The market was in a free-fall Thursday and it looks like a bounce is here.  Cramer and all of the pundits keep telling viewers how to keep their money at work.  Everyone has that special stock that will buck the trend.  But since the QQQQ topped on July 19, it has fallen 9.7%  and 89% of the 412 IBD100 stocks I monitor declined, along with 88% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks and 95% of the S&P 500 stocks.  With odds like these, why try to pick the few stocks that will rise.  Instead, I go to cash and earn interest and/or buy puts or the ultra inverse ETFs.  Cramer was disingenuous Thursday night when he said that persons who went to cash in 1987 or 1998 would have lost thousands of Dow point rises in the following bull markets.  Does he really think that a person who sold out in 1987 or 1998 would have stayed out of all of the subsequent market rises????????  Shame on Cramer and all of the pundits who advise people to ride these storms out.   There is nothing like being on the sidelines during declines like this.  I prefer to wait for the all-clear (from the GMI)  before jumping on the next meaningful up-trend.

See my disclaimers below.

GMI: 0; Fed rate cut imminent?

The GMI is at zero for the first time since 7/20/06.  Gmi0815 There were only 7 new highs and 354 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks. Wednesday was the 13th day (D-13) in the current QQQQ down-trend. The Worden T2108 indicator slipped to 8%, near the most extreme levels seen at market declines. (See my prior post.)  Even the long term indicators have weakened, with the GMI-L now at 50%. 

The short term interest rate indicator has shown a remarkable decline the past few days.  This indicator often foreshadows moves by the Federal Reserve.  I think the indicator is telegraphing an imminent rate cut by the Fed. Irxx0815 A rate cut would cause a vigorous snap back market rally,  but such rallies do not necessarily become the permanent market bottom.  It can take a while for lower rates to revive the economy and the market.

For me, the best place to be is in cash and a little short the major indexes. This is no time for heroes.

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GMI: 1; Worden T2108: 11% and near bottom range; perilous market

GMI remains at 1 and has been flashing a sell signal below 4 since the close on July 25.    There were only 8 new highs and 189 new lows in my universe of 4000 stocks on Tuesday.  This is not the time to buy growth stocks hoping that they will surge to new highs.   This is the worst reading I have seen since June 14, 2006.  I rarely see fewer than 10 new 52 week highs in a day.  The Worden T2108 indicator showed just 11% of NYSE stocks above their 40 day averages.  This is definitely bottoming area.  The worst declines have gotten down around 6-7%.  Extreme readings at major bottoms occurred  in 1987, at <1%  in 1990 at  5%, 1994 at  7.7%, 1998 8.5%, 2001 at 6.8%.  It may be worth nibbling at index ETF’s if this indicator falls to 7%.  But I try not to anticipate the market and prefer to wait for the right sign of a turn. This market looks very perilous right now.