Dr. Wish

This is the rally that I just love to resist.  The GMI is back to 1+ and the GMI-R to 4+, still well below the levels I like to see to go long.  The QQQQ is underperforming the SPY and the DIA.  The QQQQ is in the 18th day of its short term down-trend.  But a lot of the leaders are rising and all of the indexes I follow have bullish MACD daily crossovers.  The Worden T2108 is back to 34% and now above its 30 day average. I am beginning to think this is a tradeable rally.  But I don’t trust it to last.  Still, I am wading in on the long side and setting close stops.

The GMI rose one to 2 and the GMI-R to 4.  There were many new lows on Tuesday, 226, in my universe of 4,000 stocks.  There were only 48 new highs.  RIMM continued to decline, but GOOG and AAPL held up.  Tuesday was the 17th day of the current QQQQ down-trend.  The Worden T2108 is at 26%.  The stand-off between bulls and bears continues and I am content to watch from the sidelines.

The GMI fell back to 1 and the GMI-R is now at 3.  There were 69 new highs and 118 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday.   One of the tech leaders, RIMM, broke badly–not a good sign.  AAPL and GOOG also declined, but not greatly.  If these leaders break down, it is a serious omen for the general market.  34% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are now above their 30 day averages, up from 3% on November 26.  Monday was the sixteenth day in the current QQQQ short term down-trend.  We should know in a few days whether this rally will turn the trend up or fail.  I prefer to be mainly in cash until the GMI rises to above 3.