There were only 3 new highs and 460 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Monday. Monday was the 55th day of the current QQQQ short term down-trend. Since the first day of this down-trend on September 2nd, the QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 index ETF) has declined 37.7% and 99 of the 100 Nasdaq 100 stocks have declined, 52% have declined more than 40%. Do you see the folly of fighting the primary trend of the index? 99% of the stocks declined! Do you know how many persons are still looking for stocks to BUY??!!! In a down-trend one should be in cash or short. During this same period, the ultra inverse QQQQ ETF, QID, has advanced 87.5%. Now, that’s the way to play a down-trend!
Dr. Wish
GMI: 0; GMI-R: 0; 54th day of QQQQ short term down-trend; in cash and short
The GMI and GMI-R remain at zero. There were 5 new highs and 185 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Friday.
The Worden T2108 indicator (% of NYSE stocks above their 40 day moving average) is at 11%, still in bottom territory. The QQQQ completed the 54th day of its short term down-trend on Friday. Only 68% of the NASDAQ 100 stocks have a MACD above their signal line, down from 94% a week ago. So the technicals have weakened somewhat. I see no reason to change my strategy from remaining mostly in cash with a few select shorts.
GMI: 0; GMI-R: 0; 1,090 new lows on Thursday; T2108; 14%
My two general market indicators remain at zero. Among the 4,000 stocks in the universe I follow, 8 touched a 52 week high and 1,090 hit a new low on Thursday. The last time we had more than 1,000 new lows was on October 24th, at the October low (1,576 lows). Whether the market can hold Thursday's lows will tell us a lot about the probable continuation of this down-trend. Meanwhile, the key is not to anticipate a bottom but to wait for one to be in place. Since we got out of this market months ago, we have plenty of time to go long again, far below our exit prices……………….