Dr. Wish

GMI error: 3 since December 30; GMI-R: 4; QQQQ back near support

@ 10:27 am

One of the GMI and GMI-R components counts whether the IBD growth mutual fund index is above its 50 day average. My logic is that when these mutual funds are doing well, so will I be likely to, when I buy similar growth stocks. IBD no longer publishes the 50 day average for the mutual fund index, but the chart with the average is available on their website’s stock charting application (enter symbol: 0muti). GMI0109 I do not check this chart every day and missed its cross above the 50 day on December 30. Thus, the corrected GMI has been 3 since then. I am concerned, however, that its 50 day average is far below its 200 day average. While the GMI is 3 and the QQQQ short term up-trend competed its 22nd day on Friday, the QQQQ is just above support. The more sensitive GMI-R has also fallen to 4. So, I have close sell stops on all of my long stock positions and will get rid of QLD if the QQQQ starts a down-trend. In that case, I may buy some QID to profit from a decline. Options expire on Friday.

QQQQ still in up-trend; GMI: 2; GMI-R: 5; T2108: 86%; Looking for rockets

@ 12:01 am

In spite of all of the negative news out there, the QQQQ still appears to be recovering, having completed its 21st day of a short term up-trend.   There were only 11 new highs and 12 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Thursday.   Still, 82% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks closed above their 30 day averages.   I continue to hold QLD and to wait for option expiration next Friday when most of my cash-secured puts should expire worthless and profitable for me.   Five stocks on my IBD 100 lists the past year hit a new high on Thursday:   SHEN,BKR,ASEI,NCIT and VSEC. I own some of these.   Remember, if this rally holds, the stocks that have come through the current huge decline so that they are at new highs may be some of the new market leaders. I don’t bottom fish.   I look for rockets already heading towards the moon.

GMI: 2; GMI-R: 5; T2108: 85%

@ 12:01 am

The GMI-R fell one, to 5 on Wednesday. There were only 5 new highs and 12 new lows in my universe of 4,000 stocks on Wednesday.   None of the 5 new highs were on my IBD100 lists from the past year.   The QQQQ completed the 20th day of its short term up-trend.   The T2108 indicator backed off from the peak level reached on Tuesday.   I am still holding QLD as long as this up-trend holds.